When Harry Kane left Tottenham for Bayern Munich in the summer, the biggest worry for their fans was where the goals would come from.
But manager Ange Postecoglou’s belief in the collective rather than just an individual has seen his team score in every league game this season, and rank as the eighth-highest scoring team in Europe’s big five leagues.
Captain and top scorer Son Heung-Min is heading to the Asia Cup though, and with attacking injuries mounting, the club were going to have to be very creative with their January signings.
Few people though would have expected this to result in the signing of Timo Werner.
Werner was out of favour at RB Leipzig following the signings of Benjamin Sesko, Xavi Simmons and Lois Openda, and Tottenham came out of nowhere to offer him the chance at redemption in a league he was hounded out of just two years ago.
The signing makes sense on the surface as Spurs needed an attacking option who can rotate with Son and Richarlison.
The 27-year-old Werner has been a prolific goalscorer in the past, and also has the pace and intensity to meet the pressing demands of his new manager's tactical system.
But Werner looks short of confidence, so are Tottenham risking their chance at a Champions League spot by not signing a proper number 9?
Timo Werner Transfer Value - how much is he worth now?
According to our Player Valuation Model, Werner has an Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) of €39.5 million, which is a huge drop from the €91.3 million peak he reached at the start of 2021.
His 6-month loan at Tottenham has minimal downside, and the reported €17million option to buy is exactly the kind of low-risk, high-potential signing which owner Daniel Levy is a big fan of.
In the past, such a gamble rarely paid off for Spurs. Their recruitment was more focused on getting a bargain rather than going after high-quality players who would instantly improve their squad.
But this might just work under Postecoglou, who is already overseeing the resurgence of players such as Pedro Porro, Pape Matar Sarr and Yves Bissouma this season.
Is Timo Werner the right profile for Tottenham
Werner scored 23 goals and provided 21 assists in 68 starts for Chelsea - which is not too shabby. But with 23 big chances missed, there was always a sense of frustration for fans, especially given his hefty €53million transfer fee.
🎙️ “The manager straight away gave me the feeling that I needed to join the Club, and the way the team plays fits me perfectly.”
— Tottenham Hotspur (@SpursOfficial) January 9, 2024
Timo's first interview has landed! ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/EHIMH8xZ2t
The German was never an exceptional finisher, but rather someone whose goal tally matched his xG figure. This was true for all but one season during his initial spell at RB Leipzig. The one outlier was his incredible 2019/20 campaign under Julian Nagelsmann, where he scored 28 league goals from just 21.2 xG.
Even on his return to Leipzig last season, Werner matched his goal output (9) with the quality of chances he was presented with (9.1 xG).
The contrast between the huge finishing over-performance in his final season at the Red Bull Arena, followed by a big under-performance at Chelsea, did not help his case.
Too often the focus is what Timo Werner can't do, rather than what he can.
If you put him in a system where he is not burdened with being the primary goalscoring outlet, Werner can still add a lot of value. And this is what he will be at Tottenham, with goals being spread around the attacking talent in their squad.
Even last season, when he was short of confidence, the former VfB Stuttgart man had 6.18 touches in the attacking penalty area, 2.97 take-ons, 3.02 progressive carries and 9.71 progressive passes received per 90 - all of which ranked him very highly compared to other wingers in the Bundesliga.
This profile fits into Postecoglou's preference for dynamic and quick football in the final third.
Werner’s addition will make Tottenham’s attack one of the most mobile in the entire league - with electrifying pace on both sides, and also centrally.
😁 @TimoWerner 🔗 @Richarlison97 pic.twitter.com/Sw4DJm40it
— Tottenham Hotspur (@SpursOfficial) January 10, 2024
But it seems like Spurs have added a profile they already had in Richarlison and Brennan Johnson. Both are versatile, quick and direct, but simply not clinical enough.
Add Werner to this, and none of them can provide the team with more control in the final third.
Postecoglou has a growing reputation as an orator who can instil great confidence in players. He is also on record saying that he will forsake the quality of a player for the right character.
This should be music to the ears of Werner - whose quality has been severely questioned in the last few years.
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