Manchester United are just five points off the top of the Premier League, but are they in the title race? Jake Osgathorpe runs the numbers.
- Published before Barcelona 2-2 Man Utd & Man Utd 3-0 Leicester
Since early November, Manchester United have won 14 of 17 matches, with Arsenal being the only team to have beaten them.
Premier League winner (odds via Sky Bet)
- Manchester City - 10/11
- Arsenal - 11/10
- Manchester Utd - 11/1
Odds correct at 1700 (19/02/23)
That run of form has caused some to claim they're in a three-horse title race.
Some, but not others...
Erik ten Hag does deserve serious praise for the job he's doing, but this current United side are nowhere near good enough to win the league.
In fact, the Red Devils were closer under Jose Mourinho, and even under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, according to the underlying numbers.
Despite sitting third, they actually rank as the sixth-best team on expected points (xP) per game this season – even behind a broken Liverpool.
Expected goal difference (xGD) is another good marker for how well a team is performing and in that metric United are at the same level as Brentford.
Arsenal (+1.01) and Manchester City (+1.27) are streets ahead on that measurement.
According to the data, Ten Hag's team are on pace to rank as the second-worst United side since 2016.
They are much-improved on a catastrophic 2021/22, so the progress is still impressive, but their underlying numbers aren't near the levels to be considered challengers.
The Infogol model gives them a 1.7% chance of winning the title, implied odds of almost 60/1.
With the bookies pricing them at 16/1 (5.9%), they must know something we don't.
