The highlight of Saturday's football comes from Elland Road where Leeds welcome Fulham. We preview the match with two best bets.
Recommended bets
2pts Fulham/Draw (double chance) at 23/20
1pt Jack Harrison to have 3+ total shots at 2/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Leeds v Fulham (1500 BST, Sky Sports Football)
The focus was on Leeds after their defeat to Cardiff last weekend but they actually finished the weekend in a better position due to Fulham's loss to Brentford. The gap remained at seven points with a game less to play.
Elland Road creates one of the best atmospheres in the country but the Leeds players will have to do without in this contest. Victory would be a huge step in the right direction of promotion to the Premier League.
Even defeat would still leave Leeds four points clear in the top-two. Not ideal given that they had the chance to move ten clear last weekend, but their two toughest fixtures in Fulham and Cardiff away (historically a venue where Leeds perform poorly) are out of the way with for the final run-in.
Leeds weren't that bad last time out. The big missing factor was that final touch to the moves they were putting together. Posting an xG of 2.07 highlights the problems they had. If they can cut out the mistakes, which led to both of Cardiff's goals, then they have a big chance of success here.
Fulham were successful when these two sides met in December and they really have to win again if they are to secure automatic promotion. Brentford have already become the more fancied of the two if an upset is to happen following last weekend's result.
The Asian Handicap has Leeds at -0.75 here, the same as they were against Cardiff, but there is a case to be made for taking the huge odds in Fulham's favour. We don't know how the teams will react following previous results but a similar pattern for Leeds would see Fulham secure at least a point.
The double chance in Fulham's favour has them at above even money which looks too good to turn down in the circumstances. Pre-lockdown, Leeds' price would be more than justified but there's too much uncertainty at this point to give the visitors such a big price tag.
It's not a bet that is solely being backed on value alone but the odds do tempt you into the Fulham camp. They know the importance of victory here and the lack of a fierce home crowd will be hugely beneficial.
Elsewhere, delving into the statistics market provides some interesting odds. Leeds are a side with the highest average number of shots per game and that should continue here, even against another side aiming for automatic promotion.
Winger Jack Harrison posted three shots in that defeat to Cardiff and there's good odds of 2/1 available that he does the same again on Saturday. That Cardiff fixture marked the tenth time he has hit that margin in the league this season.
Harrison, on-loan from Manchester City, has improved under Marcelo Bielsa's guidance and has looked a bigger threat throughout the course of the 2019/20 campaign. With Helder Costa on the right, Leeds have genuine threats down both flanks.
Harrison has five goals and seven assists on his tally this season and Betfair/Paddy Power provide the best price of 7/2 for a goal anytime against Fulham. Instead, it's worth going for the shorter 2/1 odds on three or more total shots. We've seen him cut inside and try to find the net on numerous occasions and we're backing him to do the same here.
This contest will play a significant part in the promotion race; whatever outcome it may be. A Leeds victory moves them much closer to the Premier League while three points for Fulham will keep the hosts looking over their shoulder.
Leeds are a quality side, the best in the division, but there have been some below-par performances in the big contests over the past two seasons. Last season, when welcoming Norwich and Sheffield United to Elland Road in the latter part of the campaign, they lost both fixtures.
They'll be eager to learn the lessons from those days but we just can't predict how teams will perform at this stage with a significant period of no competitive football behind them. Fulham's double chance price is too good to turn down at this point.
Score prediction: Leeds 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Fulham/Draw (double chance) at 23/20
Best bet: Jack Harrison to have 3+ total shots at 2/1
Opta facts
- Leeds are winless in seven league meetings with Fulham (D5 L2) since a 3-0 away win in March 2015.
- The last three Championship meetings between Leeds and Fulham at Elland Road have ended as draws, with Fulham taking the lead in two of those before drawing 1-1.
- Each of the last five London teams to visit Elland Road for a league match have all lost – QPR (twice), Millwall (twice) and Brentford. The last London side to win away at Leeds was Millwall in January 2018.
- Having won five consecutive league games without conceding before the enforced break, Leeds lost their first match after the restart, 0-2 at Cardiff.
- Fulham are unbeaten in their last seven Championship away games, though five of these have ended level including each of the last three in a row (W2).
Odds correct at 1200 BST (25/06/20)
Follow Sporting Life on social - find us on Facebook here or tweet @SportingLifeFC
Related football content
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
Sky Bet's responsible gambling tools are detailed here and if you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
