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Everton free betting tips and analysis | Carlo Ancelotti, James Rodriguez and assessing the Toffees 2020/21 so far
Nobody has captured the hysteria and unpredictability brought on by pandemic football more than Everton, whose story of 2020/21 has already been pretty exhausting. They’ve had the rise, the fall, and the rise again in the space of 13 games.
First Carlo Ancelotti’s glittering new signings inspired four wins from four at the start of the campaign and the media gushed over their top-four potential.
Then Everton slid back towards the middle ground, a natural regression to the mean, and everyone felt a little silly for assuming James Rodriguez had single-handedly inspired a revolution on Merseyside.
But now, after consecutive wins over Chelsea, Leicester, Arsenal and Sheffield United, excitement is back to fever pitch.
Everton are firmly in the top four and heading for their best-ever Premier League season… but let’s not get carried away again.
Undoubtedly Everton are a better team than they were in 2019/20 and Ancelotti deserves a lot of credit for building a feisty, combative, and clinical XI, and yet we still don’t know quite what Everton represent or just how far they can go domestically.
Their Christmas run of Sheffield United - who they beat 1-0 thanks to a late Gylfi Sigurdsson goal - Manchester City, and West Ham offers a genuine chance of nine points. By January, we should be considerably more secure in our knowledge of what they can achieve in 2020/21.
Why did Everton start the season so well?
Everton began the season in a fluid 4-3-3 formation, in which Richarlison made diagonal runs off the left to join Dominic Calvert-Lewin as James Rodriguez, from the other side, had licence to roam into the number 10 space.
At times it looked more like a diamond 4-4-2, but while the forwards enjoyed swapping positions up top, things were considerably more structured in deeper areas.
The 4-4-2 of 2019/20 was gone, and in its place Ancelotti was deploying a stronger three-man midfield of Abdoulaye Doucoure, Andre Gomes and Allan.
With Allan the metronome handing Everton control, the other two snapped into challenges, forming a solid foundation that protected against the counter-attack – and allowed the full-backs Lucas Digne and Seamus Coleman to overlap simultaneously.
It was a very attacking system built on crosses into the box for Richarlison and Calvert-Lewin, with James dominating matches while Digne (finding space as Richarlison sucked the opponent infield) peppered the box with his deliveries.
All was well, and Everton were four wins from four.
Do Everton miss James Rodriguez?
Inevitably this system couldn’t last. It was simply too attacking, with the problem most keenly felt on James’s side of the pitch.
He was unable to track back effectively on the right, leaving Everton badly exposed to attacks and leading directly to four opposition goals over the next four Premier League matches, from which the Toffees won just a single point.
Sadio Mane ran riot behind him. Caught high up the pitch, the Colombian couldn’t stop Southampton from targeting that flank and overwhelming Ben Godfrey. Newcastle followed suit via Allan Saint-Maximin, then Manchester United did the same through Marcus Rashford.
Things had unravelled quickly, and this emerging defensive issue was further undermined by Richarlison’s injury.
Without the Brazilian making space for Digne, that side became flat, and without a threat on the left flank, opponents could focus more heavily on Everton’s right, doubling up on James to nullify the danger.
Ancelotti's changing formations
For the next three matches - a 3-2 win at Fulham, 1-0 defeat to Leeds, and goalless draw with Burnley - Ancelotti sorted out the James problem by switching to 3-4-3. In this shape, a right wing-back and right-sided centre-back could deal with the flank, leaving James to stay up the pitch with Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison.
It brought mixed results, but largely steadied the ship, and perhaps the most important outcome of this formation change was the re-discovery of Alex Iwobi who, though a left wing-back at this point, would later become a crucial part of the revival.
The Leeds defeat and Burnley stalemate were enough for Ancelotti to switch again, primarily because the 3-4-3 had brought back the midfield issues that continually undermined Everton in 2019/20.
Just two bodies centrally isn’t enough for Ancelotti; he deploys a cautious shape and rarely presses, which leads to stale sideways possession and the potential to be overrun in midfield.
In a dramatic shift from where we started, when Coleman and Digne surged forward together to get the ball on Calvert-Lewin’s head, Everton have deployed centre-halves in the full-back positions – recording three wins from three thanks to a solid, meaty back four that rarely venture forward.
Ben Godfrey and Mason Holgate have been superb, eliminating the defensive concerns out wide and giving Everton a secure foundation.
Iwobi, in for the injured James, has also played a vital part, his industry on the flank helping launch counter-attacks more successfully and building Everton into the final third at greater speed.
How good is this Everton team?
All of which means Everton have played with a large number of variations over the opening third of the season, and while Ancelotti deserves credit for showing adaptability over the last three months it has left some critics wondering what exactly his team represent.
This is a concern frequently levelled at Ancelotti, a manager with an unusual mix of having a keen eye for the big picture – for picking the right formation and the right combinations – but often appearing lax when it comes to the tactical details.
Everton will continue to be deployed in a midblock that aims to compress space rather than hound the ball down with a high press, and they will continue to play a possession style of football that chiefly aims to produce high-quality crossing situations. However, the details within this system are largely improvised by the players – and are subject to change.
Their future, then, is difficult to predict, but considering Ancelotti has already twice devised a successful tactical battle plan this season, it is likely he will continue to adapt. In an exhausting campaign defined by the pandemic’s knack for weakening all of the big clubs, it is an asset that should not be underestimated.
Everton are in the race for Champions League football. The next few games ought to tell us just how seriously they will challenge.