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Free betting tips: Carabao Cup semi-final second-leg - Chelsea v Tottenham
It's all to play for at Stamford Bridge on Thursday night. Tom Carnduff has a headline 75/1 tip to back as Chelsea meet Tottenham.
Recommended bets
1pt Harry Winks to be shown a card at 7/2
1pt Antonio Rudiger 1+ Shots on Target at 7/2
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Chelsea v Tottenham (Stamford Bridge, 1945 GMT, Sky Sports Main Event)
Tottenham find themselves with a goal advantage heading into the second-leg, but an injury crisis puts Chelsea as the favourites here.
Spurs will be without Harry Kane and Dele Alli, who are both out for an extended period with injuries, while Heung-Min Son is away with South Korea at the Asian Cup.
The hosts should have completed the signing of Milan forward Gonzalo Higuain by the time this game comes around, but the fact that Chelsea missed the midday deadline to register him on Wednesday means he won't be able to feature.
With Alvaro Morata departing, Eden Hazard should line-up in his false nine position again with Willian and Callum Hudson-Odoi either side.
Chelsea last won this competition in 2015, beating Tottenham 2-0 in front of a packed Wembley crowd. They'll need to overturn a deficit to reach the final this year, but the key players missing puts them in a great position on Thursday night.
Martin Atkinson is the man appointed as referee. He averages over three yellow cards per Premier League game, showing nine yellows and a red in his last three outings.
Given the stage of the competition and the two teams involved, there is every chance that plenty of cards will be shown and that's another avenue worth exploring for value.
Betting guide
Score prediction: Chelsea 3-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Tottenham have been hit massively by players missing and that should cost them in their pursuit of a trophy. The Blues have lost just once at home this season, winning all-but-four of their other Stamford Bridge contests. Maurizio Sarri has a near full squad to choose from and that will give the home side the advantage here.
Let's start off by looking at the biggest price selection. We're backing Eden Hazard, Marcos Alonso, Christian Eriksen and Kieran Trippier all to have at least eight shots on target between them, which is available at a huge 75/1 with Sky Bet. Of course, it is a big ask, hence the price of 75s, but when you break down each section it doesn't look hugely unlikely.
Hazard leads the way for shots taken in this Chelsea side with 58. That's considerably more than the 43 posted by Willian in second. Hazard saw a total of seven shots in Chelsea's last three Premier League games - while contests against Leicester, Wolves, Fulham, Manchester United, Southampton and Newcastle prior to that brought a total of five shots in each.
Despite playing at left-back, Alonso has demonstrated his attacking capabilities with the system allowing him to drive forward and look for opportunities to score. That means he is fifth for Chelsea shots this season, just one shot behind out-going striker Morata and two behind attacker Pedro. He's also demonstrated a threat from set-piece situations and in a game where they are expected to be on the front foot, he should add to that shot tally.
On the Tottenham side of things, Harry Kane's absence and Fernando Llorente's questionable performance at the weekend will put more emphasis on Eriksen to be their main hope for goals. The attacking midfield is only beaten by Kane and Son for shots taken by Tottenham players in the Premier League, and like Alonso, his ability to strike from set-piece situations could add to his shots on target count in this game.
The bigger-priced part of this multi is obviously Kieran Trippier. To balance it out equally, he'll need to have 2+ shots on target which could prove to be tricky. Equally, he also has the capability to score from free-kicks, and more importantly, from range so he won't need to be inside the box to hit the target. Also, the likes of Hazard and Eriksen could hit three shots on target each, which would remove Trippier's requirement for a contribution.
Best bet: Harry Winks to be shown a card at 7/2
Back down to Earth a bit with a shorter-priced selection, but one that still carries a lot of value at a price of 7/2 with Sky Bet.
We've already discussed the referee appointment and how this is a game that could see cards, and Harry Winks is a player who should end up in the book. The midfielder was shown a yellow in the first-leg meeting between these two, that being his fifth of the season in all competitions.
His position should see him heavily involved in the heart of the midfield battle and the likes of Ross Barkley and Jorginho have previously shown that they won't back away from a challenge.
Depending on the scoreline, this is a game that does have the potential to get a bit heated, and the fact that all of Winks' cards in the Premier League this season have come after the 80th minute shows how he does get pulled up for persistent fouls.
Best bet: Antonio Rudiger 1+ Shots on Target at 7/2
Another stats-based bet and another bet at 7/2. Antonio Rudiger has proven to be a threat in an attacking sense for Chelsea, posting the most shots on goal out of any centre-back for the Blues.
Rudiger has seen seven shots in his last nine Premier League games and also had an attempt on goal in the first leg. The majority of his shots have come from inside the area, highlighting his impact at set-piece situations, but the fact that 27% of those have come from outside the area does show how he will look to score from distance on the rare occasion that the opportunity does present itself.
Opta facts
- Chelsea have lost both of their meetings with Tottenham in all competitions this season – the last time they lost three games against the same opponent in a season was vs Man City in 2012-13.
- Tottenham are looking to win four games in a row against Chelsea in all competitions for the first time since a run of five between March 1961 and September 1963.
- Chelsea haven’t lost consecutive home games against Spurs in all competitions since March 1982.
- The last time Tottenham beat a team three times in the same season was in 2013-14 against Aston Villa.
- On just one of the five previous occasions that Chelsea lost the first leg of a League Cup semi-final tie have they progressed to the final, beating Arsenal 4-3 on aggregate in 1997-98 en route to winning the trophy.
- Tottenham have progressed on three of the five previous occasions they won a League Cup semi-final first leg, going out against Newcastle in 1975-76 and Arsenal in 1986-87 after 1-0 wins first time out.
- Since the start of last season, Chelsea’s Eden Hazard has been directly involved in six goals in his seven League Cup games (3 goals, 3 assists).
- Dele Alli has had a hand in five goals in his six League Cup starts for Tottenham (4 goals, 1 assist).
Odds correct at 1510 GMT (23/01/19)