Burnley v West Brom
Burnley are now eight points above the relegation zone after their 1-1 draw with Fulham in midweek at Turf Moor (xG: BUR 1.57 – 0.50 FUL). They squandered two big chances (>35%) on that occasion, which if converted, would have likely been enough to win the three points.
However, they’ve got another golden opportunity to add their tally against West Brom, and a win here would prove enormous in their bid to maintain Premier League status.
The Clarets, though, have struggled for consistency this season, but they’ve ensured Turf Moor isn’t an easy place to visit.
Sean Dyche’s side have conceded an average of 1.22 expected goals against (xGA) per game at home, meaning only six teams in the Premier League have a stronger home defensive process than Burnley
They’ve beaten some strong opposition at home this campaign, namely Aston Villa and West Ham, and they’ll be ready for this very winnable clash on Saturday afternoon.
West Brom firmly rank as the league’s worst team according to Infogol’s expected goals table, with the Baggies securing the fewest expected points (xP) since their return to the top tier.
Sam Allardyce is synonymous with galvanising teams to avoid relegation, but the enormous task of steering West Brom to safety is perhaps a step too far.
Their underlying numbers since his appointment have simply not improved (0.84 xGF and 1.99 xGA per game), although they did look the better side against Manchester United last weekend.
West Brom were unfortunate not to win that game based on chances created (xG: WBA 1.20 – 0.61 MUN), but those performances have been a rarity this season.
They are poor travelers, and it seems likely Burnley can win this game considering their impressive defensive record at home this campaign, which is making me side with BURNLEY WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS at 13/8.
Score prediction: Burnley 2-0 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Burnley vs West Brom best bets
- 2pts Burnley Win and Under 3.5 Goals at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct at 1230 GMT on 19/02/21
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