Burnley welcome West Brom in what promises to be a cracking Championship tie. James Cantrill previews the game, picking out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Championship
2pts West Brom Win/Draw double chance at 3/4 (Unibet)
0.5pts Dara O'Shea anytime goalscorer at 20/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Carlos Corberan's West Brom are on the march.
Since he took the reigns at the Hawthorns, his Baggies side have won on 10 of their 13 games in all competitions - their only defeats coming against Sheffield United, Corberan's first game in charge four days into his reign in the Midlands, and against Coventry, where the only goal of the game came via the spot deep into injury time.
Over that period, only the Blades (28) have secured more Championship points then West Brom's tally of 27.
So, while the 18-point gulf between them and Burnley may suggest otherwise, there is not much between these two sides.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Obviously, the Clarets are five points clear at the top of the second tier and 16 points ahead of Watford in 3rd place. However, I have my reservations about them in this match up.
Data wise, they have been running hot all season long, outperforming all aspects of their underlying data. They have a goal difference of 28, yet an expected goal difference (xGD) of 10.67.
Vincent Kompany's side have generated an xG from open play of 27.03, yet have found the net 43 times.
Burnley have won their last three fixtures, despite losing the xG battle in each, with 29% of their 17 league victories coming when they have failed to generate a greater xG then their opponents.
The most eye-catching of which was their 5-1 win over Wigan, in which they racked up an xG of 1.41 and shipped an xGA of 1.80.
They certainly have quality, but I think fortune has favoured them heavily thus far. This purple patch is simply unsustainable.
With that in mind, I think siding with WEST BROM by taking them WIN/DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE is the play.
In similar fixtures against Middlesbrough, Norwich, Watford and Sheff Utd, Burnley have won and lost two each, drawing the reserve of this.
The Baggies will draw inspiration from Sheff Utd's 5-2 thumping of Burnley, in which three of the Blades five goals came from set pieces or long throw-ins - as did 68% of 28 shots.
At Huddersfield, dead-ball situations played a major part in Corberan's success.
In the 2021/22 campaign, where the Terriers reached the play-off final, they topped the Championship charts for goals scored from set pieces (20).
Surely, this will be where West Brom look for an edge at Turf Moor.
The visitors rank second for xG from SP's (10.73), scoring nine times, and with Taylor Harwood-Bellis ruled out here, West Brom have a clear height advantage.
With Kyle Bartley sidelined through injury and Semi Ajayi out of favour, DARA O'SHEA is the ANYTIME GOALSCORER punt here.
The Irish centre-back has found the net four times in his last 41 appearances and his goals per 90 average of 0.12 from over that period makes the 20/1 available almost three times too large.
Burnley v West Brom best bets and score prediction
- 2pts West Brom Win/Draw double chance at 3/4 (Unibet)
- 0.5pts Dara O'Shea anytime goalscorer at 20/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
Score prediction: Burnley 1-2 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (18/01/23)
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