Burnley's Premier League status remains in the balance as they host Newcastle on the final day of the season. Michael Beardmore provides the preview and a best bet.
It’s a pretty simple equation for Burnley ahead of their final Premier League game of the season at home to Newcastle – win and the Clarets stay up, while any other result opens the door for 18th-placed Leeds.
Much, you suspect, will depend on how seriously the Magpies take this – since late January, they have won 11 of 17 matches, losing only to the current top four and Everton. It's top-four form.
In front of their own supporters, Newcastle – with seven wins in their past eight at St James' Park – would be expected to give it a right go. But at Turf Moor, with the Toon's safety long assured? It’s hard to be totally sure.
Burnley, meanwhile, have won three of their last four at home but have shown real signs of nerves in picking up just one point from the past nine available.
Kick-off: 16:00 BST, Sunday
There are too many intangibles here to be able to bet with any certainty on so many aspects of this game. So much depends on how Leeds fare at Brentford – an early goal there completely changes Burnley’s approach.
And that’s impossible to forecast. Leeds go one down, Burnley get wind of it and become cautious. Leeds go one up, Burnley get wind of it and go on the attack. Leeds stay level, who knows what Burnley do.
It makes the unders/overs markets in goals, corners and even cards a nightmare to predict let alone the outright outcome or correct score. Newcastle, at 11/5 generally, appeal given their form, but how much will they want it?
The point here is to ignore Burnley. They’re the ones affected by proceedings elsewhere. Newcastle, meanwhile, will enjoy the freedom of not really caring about the result. That can be dangerous.
Of course, there has been one particular Newcastle player that has been especially dangerous in recent weeks – and I think he provides the best value bet here.
He’s only been on Tyneside for three and a half months but Bruno Guimaraes is already a cult hero. Five goals in 11 games is part of the reason for that.
But it’s also important to note that he’s had 18 shots in 10 starts – and that includes 10 efforts on target. He’s averaging a shot on target every starting appearance.
That makes the market-leading even money Sky Bet offer – 5/6 or 8/11 with most firms – on Bruno to test Burnley stopper Nick Pope mightily appealing. But it gets even better – Sky Bet have boosted that price to 6/4 on BRUNO GUIMARAES TO HAVE 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET.
With safety tantalisingly close, the Clarets have really tended to sit back recently – conceding 24 shots on target in their past three matches, an average of eight per game.
If Aston Villa – seven shots on target away, nine at home in the quickfire reverse – can trouble Pope so often then it makes sense to back Newcastle’s star man Guimaraes to do so at a real value price.
Burnley v Newcastle score prediction and best bet
- Bruno Guimaraes 1+ shot on target at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1815 BST (20/05/22)
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