Will we see more Alisson heroics? I hope so, but it is unlikely. Liverpool remain in must-win territory as they travel to Burnley.
Premier League betting tips: Burnley v Liverpool
0.5pt Burnley to win or Draw at 10/3 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)
1pt Burnley 10+ shots at 9/5 (Betfair)
Well, who saw Alisson banging in a 95th minute header at the weekend coming? West Brom certainly didn’t, but what header. It was a goal that kept Liverpool’s top-four hopes well and truly alive, and very nearly in their own hands.
Two wins from their last two games for Jurgen Klopp’s side would move them onto 69 points, that will more than likely be enough, though a crazy goal swing could occur and leave them fifth. Unlikely though.
Liverpool way to short
They travel to Burnley on Wednesday, but are extremely short at 1/5 to get the three points at Turf Moor against a team that beat them at Anfield earlier in the season.
For perspective, they were a similarly short price at the weekend against West Brom and needed a last minute winner from their GOALKEEPER, and against Newcastle a few weeks back they were again criminally short, and game they drew 1-1.
It is the time of year where NEED FOR A WIN is baked into prices, and it is probably that coupled with the ‘they’ve nothing to play for’ surrounding Burnley that has this price so short.
Last season at Turf Moor, the Reds were around the 1/2 mark with fans in the stadium and Liverpool performing at elite levels week in and week out. The 1/5 available on Wednesday represents zero value, and does make me want to take advantage of all the big prices available surrounding Burnley.
Clarets home form will improve
A lot has been made of Burnley’s home results after their 4-0 loss to Leeds at the weekend, with that being their ninth home game without a win, but the performances they have put in have deserved plenty of points.
Over that nine-game stretch, they have won the xG battle in five of them, and while they have been increasingly vulnerable defensively at Turf Moor, they are creating more and better chances of late, too.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Despite scoring just six and conceding 14 in those nine games, their xG figures read 13.2 xGF to 14.2 xGA. The underperformance of around seven goals in attack is what has cost them, and could mean some regression at some point in the near future if they continue to attack in the same manner.
📉 Burnley have failed to win their last NINE home games in the Premier League - a new unwanted club record for Sean Dyche...
— Infogol (@InfogolApp) May 15, 2021
🤏 ...but they've been unfortunate in attack.
➡️ Next up: Liverpool (Weds)
🏟 Around 3,500 fans will be in attendance at Turf Moor#BurnleyFC | #BURLEE pic.twitter.com/Nx5chdjlZJ
Liverpool still vulnerable
While the Reds are in good form heading into this, and their away xG process has been positive all season long, they have allowed plenty more chances on the road than they have in the past few years.
They have averaged 1.36 xGA on their travels this term, and have allowed over 2.0 xGA in two of their last three road games. They are a team that give you chances.
Factor in the nerves and pressure of them needing to win this game, and the added home crowd that they will have to deal with, and I think we can take the Reds on here.
A fragile defence coming up against an in-form Burnley attack, that have averaged 1.66 xGF per game in their last 10, could spell trouble for Jurgen Klopp’s side as the Clarets aim to go out with a bang in front of their home fans.
BURNLEY TO WIN OR DRAW in the double chance market can be backed at a huge 10/3 with BetVictor, and that appeals greatly given everything discussed.
A few more variables that could play into this are the shorter rest period Liverpool have had, a thin squad for the most part, and the emotion expended after the win over West Brom. Burnley’s price simply looks too big.
Shots could be another in
As well as siding with Burnley to get a result, there could be value in the shots market, too.
BURNLEY 10+ SHOTS is priced up at 9/5 on Betfair, but the lines elsewhere start at 11+ at even money. That is our in.
The Clarets have been getting into more shooting positions regularly of late, and pulling the trigger. Sean Dyche’s side took 16 shots against Leeds at the weekend, 14 at Fulham, 14 at Wolves, 24 against Newcastle, 14 at Everton; you get the idea.
They managed nine at Old Trafford not so long ago, nine at home to Arsenal and 10 at home to Leicester, so have regularly flirted with this line against ‘bigger’ teams.
Burnley have averaged 12 shots over their last 14 games, and couple that with the fact that Liverpool have allowed 10+ shots in eight of their last 12, and we have another solid priced value bet.
Burnley v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 0.5pt Burnley to win or Draw at 10/3 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)
- 1pt Burnley 10+ shots at 9/5 (Betfair)
Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct 1515 BST (18/05/21)
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