Liam Kelly aims to continue his strong form after returning some tidy profit at the weekend, picking out a best bet for Burnley v Leicester.
Football betting tips: Burnley v Leicester
1pt Dwight McNeil to assist 1+ goal at 4/1 (General)
A welcome return to Turf Moor for Burnley, as they continue to present little threat on their travels.
Sunday's convincing 4-0 defeat to Tottenham at the weekend was rather spiritless, creating very few chances after Spurs burst into a clear lead.
That loss keeps Burnley firmly in the relegation battle, sitting in 15th place in the Premier League table and just five points above a resurgent Fulham.
Kick-off time: Wednesday, 18:00 GMT
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 29/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 1/1
Admittedly, goals have been hard to come by at home, scoring just 10 goals in 13 games this season, but Sean Dyche's side have been much more successful at creating chances there than on the road.
The Clarets average a paltry 0.87 expected goals for (xGF) per game away from home and 1.04 xGF at Turf Moor, highlighting the significance of home comforts.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
The Foxes are also looking to get back to winning ways following a disappointing 3-1 defeat to Arsenal on Sunday, giving up an early lead without much of a fight.
A similar collapse to last season appears to be a serious possibility as injuries are starting to take their toll on Brendan Rodgers' squad.
Harvey Barnes is the latest name added to a long list of casualties, while Jonny Evans is also a doubt for this match-up with a calf issue.
Evans would be a huge miss considering the opposition, giving Burnley a distinct edge from set-pieces - if that wasn't a big enough advantage for the Clarets already.
Leicester have been poor from a defensive perspective recently, too, allowing an average of 1.76 xGA per game across their last six league fixtures.
With Burnley's chief threat Chris Wood returning to the fold, the 4/1 available for DWIGHT MCNEIL TO ASSIST 1+ GOAL looks a tasty price.
McNeil is a constant menace on the left side, and is more than capable of providing the requisite service for the likes of Wood, James Tarkowski and Ben Mee to thrive.
Burnley are no pushover at Turf Moor, making this a tough test for a short-handed team.
I think Leicester's winless run in all competitions will be extended to three games.
Burnley v Leicester score prediction and best bets
- Dwight McNeil to assist 1+ goal at 4/1 (General)
Score prediction: Burnley 2-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1630 GMT on 03/03/21
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