Burnley and Leeds, two winless sides, meet at Turf Moor on Sunday, and Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, wanting to side with the visitors.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Leeds to win at 13/10 (General)
Burnley have lost their opening two league games, going down 2-1 at home to Brighton before losing 2-0 at Liverpool.
The Clarets have picked up from where they left off last season, struggling to create chances and struggling to prevent them.
Sean Dyche’s side were exposed defensively in both matches so far this season, allowing 4.51 expected goals against (xGA) in two games, and they now face another strong attacking side.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Burnley 2/1 | Draw 12/5 | Leeds 13/10
In attack, 60% of Burnley’s xGF has come from set-plays, with the Clarets averaging just 0.61 open-play expected goals for (xGF) per game.
There is a lot of hustle and bustle to this Burnley side, but they are lacking creative quality.
Leeds also haven’t hit their stride yet this term, but a swashbuckling 2-2 draw with Everton showed signs that Marcelo Bielsa’s side are getting to their levels.
Defensively they have looked vulnerable, but their opening two matches came against fellow top-10 finishers, and against that group of teams last term their xG process was poor (1.47 xGF, 2.19 xGA per game), and so were their results (W4, D4, L8).
Against bottom half teams though, Leeds took full advantage.
Bielsa’s side won 14 of 20 league games against the bottom half, boasting a good xG process (1.70 xGF, 1.29 xGA per game) which tells us that their results were deserved.
To put it simply, Leeds were flat-track bullies. There is no reason to think things won’t be the same this term.
Burnley, who finished 16th last season, failed to score against Leeds in two defeats, including a 4-0 thrashing at Turf Moor, and given the way they have started the new campaign, siding with the visitors looks wise again.
In my view, Leeds are a top half team, and the way in which they play is extremely well suited to playing weaker sides who can’t match them for individual quality, so LEEDS TO WIN looks an attractive bet.
Burnley may get on the scoresheet, but it will be tough for them to hold Leeds to just the one goal in this match.
Burnley v Leeds best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Leeds to win at 13/10 (General)
Score prediction: Burnley 1-2 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 0915 BST (27/08/21)
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