Football betting tips: Burnley v Fulham
1pt Burnley to beat Fulham at 15/8 (Betfair)
Sean Dyche rang the changes ahead of Burnley’s FA Cup fifth-round tie with Bournemouth last week, making eight adjustments to the team that drew 1-1 with Brighton previously, and the Clarets paid the price.
Once again the cliché of “they’re not going down and or getting into Europe, so why not try and win the Cup?” reared its head. As if it is all as simple as that.
Dyche's reasons for picking a weakened team became very clear as Burnley thrashed Crystal Palace 3-0 in the Premier League on Saturday.
Early strikes from Johann Gudmundsson and Jay Rodriguez put the Clarets two goals up, before Matt Lowton sealed the three points shortly after half-time.
Kick-off time: Wednesday, 18:00 GMT
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 7/4 | Draw 21/10 | Away 17/10
That was arguably Burnley’s finest performance of the season, victory at Anfield included, displaying an air of dominance they have rarely shown.
It was also a third win in six league games, the other two coming against Liverpool and Aston Villa; their only defeats came against Chelsea and Manchester City.
Only five teams have picked up more points in that period, leaving the Clarets in seventh position in the form table.
At home, as well, Dyche’s side have not looked back since losing their first three matches at Turf Moor picking up 14 points from eight matches, a tally bettered only by Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea.
Why Burnley are good value to beat Fulham
Despite their strong form, especially on their own patch, Burnley are outsiders at home to relegation-threatened Fulham.
Fulham themselves produced a really good performance to grab a surprising - but deserved - 2-0 victory over Everton on Sunday.
It ended a run of 12 matches without a Premier League win and will have given Scott Parker’s side a glimmer of hope in terms of survival.
This is yet another tough task for the Cottagers though, and Sunday’s result, along with recent performances, may lull punters into thinking Fulham are going through a spell of good form.
But the West London side have still only accrued six points from their last six matches, with just West Brom and Southampton picking up fewer.
Fulham's win at Everton looks to have sparked something of an overreaction from the layers in terms of the away team's price here.
Punters underestimate Burnley and overestimate Fulham
Parker’s men are as short as 13/8 in places, odds that look out of place in comparison with their recent price history. In their last two away league matches, Fulham have gone off at 29/10 (against Brighton and Everton).
Fulham were outsiders against Brighton and yet they are favourites against Burnley - sides neck and neck in the table.
The Clarets' prices continue to astound, with the average for Dyche’s team over the last six matches a whopping 15/2.
Matches against Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool have a big part to play, but remove those fixtures and it's still roughly 5/2, which included wins against Villa and Palace and a draw with Brighton.
BURNLEY are as big as 9/5 to win this match and that is too big to pass up.
Burnley v Fulham score prediction and best bet
- Burnley to beat Fulham at 15/8 with Betfair
Score prediction: Burnley 2-0 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Posted at 1400 GMT on 16/02/21
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