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Burnley v Brentford tips: Premier League preview and best bets
Burnley are still searching for their first win of the season as Brentford make the trip north. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out two best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Burnley to win at 17/10 (General)
1pt Over 2.5 Goals at 6/5 (bet365)
Without a win across their first nine games, and with a total of just four points, this is now the worst start Burnley have made to a Premier League season since their return to the top-flight.
Sean Dyche’s men are regular slow starters, but the pressure is beginning to mount at Turf Moor as the relegation zone looms ever more ominous year on year.
The irony is that Burnley are actually posting marginally better attacking numbers this season than they did last term (1.20 expected goals for per game as opposed to 1.13 xGF).
But, unfortunately for Dyche, defensively they have been worse, allowing far more chances on average as well as conceding 15 goals from their opening nine Premier League matches.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Burnley 13/8 | Draw 11/5 | Brentford 17/10
There is hope for the Clarets though, and a lot of it comes in the shape of Maxwel Cornet.
The Ivory Coast striker has scored three goals in three appearances for Burnley and has added a much needed second dimension to the way Dyche’s men play.
He netted twice in Burnley’s 2-2 draw with Southampton last weekend, and the fact that his goals have come from an xG of 0.94 means he does not need a plethora of chances to find the back of the net; good news then given the Clarets are hardly the most creation-heavy team.
Speaking of creation-heavy teams, Brentford make the trip up north as the fifth highest ranked team in Infogol’s expected table, with an expected goal difference (xGD) of +4.1.
The Bees have been flying high this season, but they have gone through a mini blip of late, losing their last two Premier League matches.
Admittedly, they were perhaps unlucky not to get more out of their game against Chelsea – Edouard Mendy pulling off a couple of stunning stops to keep the score at 1-0 – while against Leicester they created the better opportunities.
Of the two, Brentford are looking a better team than Burnley this season, but it is important not to get carried away.
Brentford’s average price this season has been just over 100/30. That is not a wholly accurate reflection given the difference in quality in the teams they have played.
So, removing games against Arsenal, Liverpool, West Ham, Chelsea and Leicester – the league’s ‘better’ teams – Brentford’s average price this season still stands at 11/4 – that is from games against Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Brighton and Wolves.
Given that, the fact that they are as short as 13/8 favourites with some firms to win this match is difficult to get on board with, and makes BURNLEY TO WIN a good bet at 17/10.
The Clarets have lost just one of their last four Premier League matches, and that was against Manchester City, and they have been knocking on the door of that first league win of the season of late.
Goals galore at Turf Moor?
Looking at the goals markets and it is understandable that Under 2.5 is priced up as the favourite; these two sides rely heavily on their defence to get results, or at least, Bretford used to.
Recently, Brentford have employed a much more attacking approach, creating chances equating to 2.05 xGF per game over their last four matches, three of which have seen Over 2.5 Goals.
Meanwhile, two of Burnley’s last four have gone over the 2.5 goal threshold, with the Clarets netting twice against Leicester and Southampton.
The 6/5 available about OVER 2.5 GOALS in this match is a price worth getting onside given these two’s recent results.
Burnley v Brentford best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Burnley to win at 17/10 (General)
- 1pt Over 2.5 Goals at 6/5 (bet365)
Score prediction: Burnley 2-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 1150 BST (28/10/21)
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