Football betting tips: FA Cup
2pts Burnley to beat Bournemouth in 90 minutes at 11/8
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Burnley v Bournemouth
- 17:30 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 11/8 | Draw 23/10 | Away 9/4
This is one of those FA Cup draws where both teams will fancy their chances of success.
It would have also been welcomed when the draw was made as it avoids the typical big-hitters who remain at this stage. It gives Burnley or Bournemouth a real opportunity to reach the latter stages of the competition.
Sean Dyche's side sit one spot above the relegation zone in the Premier League but they hold a significant eight-point advantage over Fulham. We're unlikely to see anyone but those three teams going down, but we may well see the positions switch around a bit.
Burnley will make a couple of changes here but their 11/8 price with Betfair for victory in 90 minutes is just too good to turn down with this game taking place at Turf Moor. The Clarets have picked up some good results on their home ground and we should expect that to continue in the FA Cup.
Their only recent home defeats have come against the two Manchester clubs, with City brushing aside the entire Premier League with ease and United leaving it late to secure a 1-0 victory.
Around that, they have beaten Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United and Wolves since mid-November, while a 1-1 draw with Brighton last time out saw them comfortably win the expected goals (xG) battle by a scoreline of 2.11-0.63 according to Infogol data.
James Tarkowski and Matej Vydra failed to convert big chances but they can take confidence from that result and their recent good form against a struggling side who are in danger of falling out of the top six in the Sky Bet Championship.
The managerless club may have beaten Birmingham last time out but they have won just one of their last six on the road, with defeats coming against fellow top clubs Brentford and Reading. They have also seen four of their last five league contests end in defeat.
Caretaker boss Jonathan Woodgate has said he won't be mixing up the team but recent form is a huge concern and Burnley are worth backing because of the value on offer. It's priced up based on league positions with a seeming disregard for current results.
The form charts over the last five games in the Premier League have Burnley comfortably sat in 10th. In the Championship, over the same five game period, Bournemouth are 21st - only Barnsley and Huddersfield have seen fewer points gained.
At 11/8, it's well worth siding with the Premier League outfit to secure victory at home.
Bournemouth may have seen a win last time out but they lost the xG battle, and while points are the most important thing, that suggests their current poor form isn't yet over.
Burnley are a real value play here.
Score prediction: Burnley 2-0 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Burnley v Bournemouth best bets
Opta facts
- Burnley and Bournemouth have met four times in the FA Cup across three ties, with Burnley progressing from each (1960-61, 1965-66, 2004-05).
- This will be Bournemouth’s 18th away match against Burnley in all competitions, only winning one of the previous 17 (D6 L10), a 2-1 victory on the final day of the 2017-18 Premier League campaign thanks to a 93rd minute Callum Wilson goal.
- Burnley are looking to reach the FA Cup quarter-final for the first time since the 2002-03 campaign. They’ve been eliminated at the fifth round stage five times since then, most recently in 2016-17 by Lincoln City.
- Bournemouth have reached the FA Cup fifth round while themselves outside of the top-flight for the first time since 1988-89, when they were eliminated by Man Utd at this stage after a replay.
Odds correct at 1340 GMT (08/02/21)
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