Burnely welcome Aston Villa to Turf Moor on Wednesday evening and Jake Pearson is siding with Sean Dyche's men to continue their good run of form.
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Burnley v Aston Villa
- 18:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Mach odds: Home 11/4 | Draw 5/2 | Away 19/20
There is unlikely to be a football team anywhere across the globe currently enjoying a bigger high than Sean Dyche’s Burnley; how things change.
Burnley arrived on Merseyside last week on the back of successive 1-0 defeats at the hands of Manchester United and West Ham, but they dug their heels in and produced a famous performance to become the first team to win at Anfield since Crystal Palace in April 2017, ending Liverpool’s 68-game unbeaten home record.
They followed that up with a hugely convincing 3-0 win away at Fulham in the FA Cup on Sunday, producing a dominant display to sweep aside their Premier League rivals, the Clarets now seemingly oozing with confidence.
This upturn in form comes after a rocky start to the season, which had many people wondering if Burnley’s time in the Premier League was finally coming to an end, but Sean Dyche’s men have been notoriously slow starters since their return to the top-flight, late out of the blocks in both the 2018/19 and 2019/20 seasons. They turned it around in both of those campaigns, and they look to be doing the same this term.
The thing that is surprising about Burnley’s season so far has been their poor home form, the Claret’s currently occupying 16th position in the home table. That poor record stems largely from the early part of season however, Burnley losing each of their first three home matches. They have certainly turned the corner since then, the 1-0 defeat to Manchester United earlier in the month their only loss at Turf Moor since they were beaten by Chelsea back in October
In fact, Burnley have collected 10 points in their last five home matches, picking up an average of 2 points per game, a ratio that can be bettered only by Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur over the same period of time.
Burnley come into this fixture in top form, and with a now-formidable home record. Aston Villa have been good this season, but do they deserve to be as short as they currently are when factoring in all this information?
It has been a wonderful first half of the season for Dean Smith’s side, perpetuated by some eye-catching results, notably the 7-2 drubbing of Liverpool, as well as the 3-0 victory over Arsenal.
Things have been a little difficult for the Villains since Christmas however, after a defeat away at Manchester United on New Year’s Day, an outbreak of Covid-19 among the squad meant postponement of their home fixtures against Tottenham and Everton.
Villa returned from their enforced break with a shadow-chasing, fatigue-inducing fixture against Manchester City last week, and while Smith’s side showed up pretty well in keeping the Citizens at bay for almost 80 minutes, it will have no doubt taken its toll on their fitness.
A comfortable 2-0 victory over Newcastle at the weekend put Dean Smith’s side back on track, but just how much a win over a Magpies side in complete disarray is worth is up for debate, making it difficult to judge just how in-form Villa are at present.
Villa have undoubtedly had a great first half of the season, but three games in the space of a week could just take its toll on this side, and this brings us back to the question of whether Aston Villa deserve to be as short as they currently are against what must be deemed an in-form Burnley team.
Other than when hosting Tottenham, Chelsea and Manchester United, this is the biggest price Burnley have been at Turf Moor this season, while, aside from when travelling to West Brom for a Midlands derby last month, this is the shortest price Villa have been away from home all campaign. Against West Ham the Villains were as big as 2/1, while away to Wolves, who are currently just one place above Burnley, Villa could be backed at 15/8.
There is no doubting that Aston Villa are a very good side, but Burnley look back to their best at home, and a price of 29/10 for the Clarets to continue on their good run of form looks a shade too big.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Opta facts
- Turf Moor has seen fewer goals scored than any other Premier League ground this season, with just 13 goals being scored in Burnley’s eight home league games this season (F5 A8). However, none of these games have finished goalless.
- Aston Villa have lost their last two Premier League away games, more than they had in their previous nine on the road (W5 D3). The Villans have conceded four goals in these games, more than they had in their first seven on the road this term (3).
- Burnley striker Chris Wood has scored in three of his four league starts against Aston Villa, with each goal coming at a different ground (Elland Road, Villa Park, Turf Moor).
- No side has scored fewer home goals in the Premier League this season than Burnley (5), with Chris Wood the only player to net more than once at Turf Moor for the Clarets this term (2).
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