After a 7/1 winning tip last Saturday, Tom Carnduff is searching for more value and has a best bet for Burnley's Premier League meeting with Arsenal.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Burnley/Draw on double chance at 11/8 (Sky Bet, Unibet)
Burnley will certainly be the happier of the two sides with their position in the Premier League table at this stage of the season. The Clarets look like they will retain their spot in England's top-flight, even if it is just six points between themselves and Fulham in 18th.
The relegation battle looks like it will be a straight battle between Scott Parker's men and Newcastle, even if the league table tries to tell us otherwise. Against an Arsenal side struggling for consistency, the prices on offer in Burnley's favour are worth taking.
The Clarets have seen just one win in their last five but only one of those games has ended in defeat. Arsenal may have enjoyed back-to-back wins over Benfica and Leicester but three wins in their last eight demonstrates perfectly why they are a team finding it difficult to kick themselves away from the grasp of mid-table.
Can Burnley do the double over Arsenal?
Sean Dyche's side were successful in their meeting at the Emirates earlier this season and this contest presents them with a chance to do the double over the Gunners.
One of the big issues with this Burnley team is that they blow hot and cold. You just don't really know which version of them will turn up and, as a neutral, dare I say that this has made the Clarets' games worth watching?
They had seven shots on target in the draw with Leicester last time out but were kept out by Kasper Schmeichel. In the home game before, a 0-0 draw with West Brom, they saw less shots and needed goal line defending to deny the Baggies - Sam Allardyce's men won the Infogol xG battle by a scoreline of 1.42 to 0.63 that day.
Arsenal's win over a depleted Leicester side was a positive in terms of points gained but the Foxes are starting to feel the effects of key absentees. Burnley should have also had three points so the market being influenced by the Gunners' recent results is ignoring the context behind them.
If this game was being played at the Emirates, I could understand Arsenal being the odds-on price that they are. However, at Turf Moor, it's difficult to oppose Burnley. Their recent record at home has been positive and it's brought them a steady stream of points on the board.
The two Manchester clubs are the only teams to have been successful in denying Burnley at least a draw in their last eleven games at home. The Clarets' overall home form is dragged down by their slow start to the campaign and turning those draws into victories.
Therefore, the 11/8 on BURNLEY OR DRAW ON THE DOUBLE CHANCE is a price that does look too generous when we consider the factors surrounding the game. A team sat in 10th should not be as short as they are to win at a venue that is becoming tricky for the opposition.
Burnley v Arsenal best bets and score prediction
- Burnley/Draw on double chance at 11/8 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (04/03/21)
Opta facts
- Burnley are looking to complete their first league double over Arsenal since the 1962-63 campaign, following their 1-0 win at the Emirates earlier this season.
- Ashley Barnes has scored 43% of Burnley’s Premier League goals against Arsenal (3/7) – he’s the only current member of their squad to score a league goal for the Clarets against Arsenal.
- Arsenal striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored more Premier League goals against Burnley than he has any other side in the competition (7). However, the Gunners captain scored the winning goal at the wrong end in the reverse fixture this season.
- Arsenal’s Nicolas Pépé has scored in four of his last five away games in the Premier League, having netted in just two of his first 18 on the road in the competition.
- Arsenal’s Alexandre Lacazette has scored seven away goals in the Premier League this season, more than he had in 2018-19 and 2019-20 combined (6). Seven of the Gunners’ 11 Premier League victories this season have been in games in which Lacazette has scored.
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