Our best bets from the Bundesliga

Bundesliga tips, best bets, predictions and previews: Matchday 20 picks


Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets for Matchday 20 of the Bundesliga season, with three games in focus across the weekend.


Football betting tips: Bundesliga

2pts Over 2.5 Goals in Freiburg v Stuttgart at 19/20 (VBet)

1pt Borussia Mönchengladbach to beat Hertha Berlin and Over 2.5 Goals at 13/5 (Sporting Index)

0.5pt e.w. Micky van de Ven to score first in Schalke v Wolfsburg at 50/1 (Sky Bet 1/3 1-99)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

https://m.skybet.com/lp/acq-bet-x-get-30?sba_promo=ACQBXG30&dcmp=SL_ACQ_BXG30&aff=9537

Hertha Berlin v Borussia Mönchengladbach

  • TV: Sky Sports Football
  • 14:30 GMT, Sunday

A different season but the same story for Hertha Berlin.

They find themselves 17th in the Bundesliga standings - an already sizeable five points off complete safety - and torrid recent form means that confidence will be incredibly low.

Compare and contrast that to Mönchengladbach, who have seemingly put their post-World Cup break slump behind them. They may have drawn with Schalke last time out but it still means four points gained from their last two.

At a best price of 13/5, MÖNCHENGLADBACH TO WIN AND OVER 2.5 GOALS is the bet in this one.

They travel to the capital knowing they have the attacking power to push them to victory. The 34 goals scored ranks them sixth in this column - although defensively there have been some problems.

Mönchengladbach lead the league when it comes to BTTS this season. A total of 68% of their games have seen this win, with the figure moving up to 78% in away contests.

The reason we're going for over three rather than both teams is that Mönchengladbach have the ability to cover this on their own - it removes the worry of needing the home side to find the net.

Factor in that only Bochum have seen OVER 2.5 GOALS win more this season and the appeal is there in coupling that with a MÖNCHENGLADBACH WIN.

Our football team enjoyed a winning 2022

Schalke v Wolfsburg

  • TV: Sky Sports Mix
  • 19:30 GMT, Friday

A game in which I have very little interest in getting involved with the outright markets.

Schalke are poor; Wolfsburg perhaps over-performed during a recent unbeaten run - although they know the importance of three points here if they are to break into the top-four come the conclusion of the campaign.

One area in which they continue to excel though is set-pieces. Niko Kovač's side are eye-catching on both sides of these situations - a dominance in attack that isn't quite matched defensively.

They can enjoy some joy through this route on Friday night though, and I'm having a small stakes each-way play on MICKY VAN DE VEN TO SCORE FIRST at 50/1.

The Dutch defender netted his only goal of the campaign in the win over Dortmund prior to the World Cup break, but he's returned three shots across his last two outings.

Schalke are the fifth-worst team when it comes to set-piece xGA, per Opta Analyst, and van de Den returned two shots in the 0-0 draw between the two sides back in August.

Both of those were headers from set-pieces, and the fact that only Union Berlin top Wolfsburg for goals from free-kicks and corners this season should be evident in front of the TV cameras on Friday.

Don't be surprised to see Sebastiaan Bornauw get opportunities too, but the value on offer for VAN DE VEN to strike delivers some interest in the weekend opener.

Freiburg v Stuttgart

  • 14:30 GMT, Saturday

This game has the potential to provide more entertainment than we'd perhaps expect at face value.

Stuttgart have seen the third-lowest number of goals scored in Germany's top-flight this season, but the underlying numbers highlight that they should have had more.

The 27.4 xG on their tally ranks 11th in this metric, with Saturday's opponents Freiburg boasting the fifth-highest (29.8).

Add in the mixed form of the hosts - with nine goals scored and 14 conceded across their last five - and the potential for OVER 2.5 GOALS is there.

No Bundesliga side has seen this bet land in more away games this season than Stuttgart (78%), while they've found the net in 67% of those - highlighting that they are playing their part.

This is a strong Freiburg attack coming up against one who have underperformed, but know they have to start picking points up to drag themselves clear of relegation trouble.

It's difficult to get fully on-board with them getting all three here, meaning the near even money prices on three or more GOALS scored provides appeal.


Bundesliga: Weekend best bets

  • 2pts Over 2.5 Goals in Freiburg v Stuttgart at 19/20 (VBet)
  • 1pt Borussia Mönchengladbach to beat Hertha Berlin and Over 2.5 Goals at 13/5 (Sporting Index)
  • 0.5pt e.w. Micky van de Ven to score first in Schalke v Wolfsburg at 50/1 (Sky Bet 1/3 1-99)

Odds correct at 1350 GMT (10/02/23)

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