Middlesbrough will be looking to return to winning ways as they travel to Bristol City. Tom Carnduff looks at the betting.
Is this the Middlesbrough collapse? Coming at such a vital point of the season?
No, of course not. The transformation from relegation candidates to automatic promotion under Michael Carrick's guidance has been remarkable, but they will know the importance of victory here to keep those slim hopes of top-two alive.
They're also battling for 3rd, and those last two defeats are understandable when factoring in the opposition - champions-elect Burnley and a Huddersfield side enjoying a turnaround of their own under Neil Warnock.
A trip to mid-table side in Bristol City is the best you can hope for at this stage. Not involved at either end of the Sky Bet Championship table, it's a good opportunity for Boro to bounce back.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Home showings have been strong from Nigel Pearson's side though, even with little incentive in terms of promotion or survival. They've seen the 2023 turnaround that was required, although those wins were largely against sides you'd expect them to beat.
Remarkably, Middlesbrough have drawn just two of their 25 with Carrick at helm. It's win or lose, but their position in the table highlights which one has been more common.
The odds-against prices available across the board on an away win deliver some interest, but it's difficult to turn down the 13/8 on CHUBA AKPOM TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Akpom's transformation has sat alongside the upturn in Middlesbrough's performances. He's top of the scoring charts by some distance - eight separates him and Coventry's Viktor Gyökeres in second going into Monday's fixtures.
The forward's netted 27 in 35 games across all competitions, but the arrival of Carrick has certainly been of benefit to him.
Akpom scored four in the ten he played under previous management - an average of 0.4 per game - but it's jumped up to 23 in 25 under Carrick - an average of 0.92 per game.
It's hardly a surprise when he's been going at a rate of 3.0 shots per league outing since Carrick's appointment - again another improvement having been at 1.9 before.
Essentially, the stats back up what we've been seeing on the pitch but that's hardly a surprise given that he's scoring most weeks. In fact, he's found the net in 71% of league games under Carrick - with his current run standing at six.
Middlesbrough will be a strong contender in the play-offs and have a good chance of victory here, but given form, AKPOM is the more appealing bet at the prices available.
Bristol City v Middlesbrough best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Chuba Akpom to score anytime at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Bristol City 1-2 Middlesbrough (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1150 BST (09/04/23)
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