Even Lionel Messi's brilliance may not be enough to stop Bayern rolling over Barca in the Champions League. Paul Higham previews Friday's huge clash.
Recommended bets
2pts Bayern to beat Barcelona & over 2.5 goals at 13/8
1pt Lionel Messi to score anytime at 7/5
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Barcelona v Bayern Munich
- Friday August 14 | BT Sport 1 - 8pm
- Match odds: Barca 5/2 | Draw 14/5 | Bayern 19/20
What a tie this is, even better that it's a one-off game, and it's really a case of how much burden Lionel Messi can shoulder as his disappointing supporting cast could cost him a shot at a fifth Champions League title.
Amazingly, Barcelona have made the last eight of the competition for the 13th straight year, that's supreme consistency at the very highest level - and most of it comes from having one of, if not THE best player to ever lace up some boots (I'm not getting into that argument here though).
Barca made the semis six straight years during the golden age of Messi, Xavi, Inietsa and co, but the players around Messi now look more of a hindrance than a help at times - especially at the back. Coach Quique Setien was brought in to play the 'Barca way' but although they were top scorers in Spain, six defeats and defensive lapses down the run-in saw Real Madrid power away to the title.
Messi has been unusually vocal at times in his disappointment at the way the club is heading - their stars are ageing and the big-money signings have failed to shine. Ousmane Dembele has been out injured (he is in the squad here), Philippe Coutinho was shipped out to Bayern on loan (but could play against Barca) and Antoine Griezmann has underwhelmed.
The Frenchman scored nine goals in a team that bagged 86 in LaLiga - and his alarmingly quiet season means that's now three £100m men who have hardly made any impact to the team. You can see where Messi's coming from.
It's at the back though, where Barca have kept two clean sheets in the Champions League this season, that is the major worry - as they face a goal-getting monster in the shape of Bayern Munich and their prolific marksman Robert Lewandowski.
As our Richard Jolly points out, the Pole is, well, poles apart from the competition when it comes to his scoring habits this season - bagging a goal every 47 minutes (13 goals in seven games). That's a super human strike rate that nobody's ever got close to before.
Bayern to blow Barca away?
You can never truly rule out Barcelona while Messi's around, and they've actually lost just one of 13 and are unbeaten in eight Champions League games - both teams have scored in six of Barcelona’s last seven in this competition though and if there's one team who will exploit defensive weakness, it's Bayern.
The German giants brushed Chelsea aside in a game they could have gone through the motions in, but they look hungry, relentless and, most importantly, so dangerous going forward. 13 matches in their current 18-game winning streak had over 2.5 goals, with 10 of them having four goals or more as the Bavarians have overpowered everyone they've faced.
Bayern have also led five of their last eight Champions League wins at half time, while keeping clean sheets in half of their majestic 18-game winning run.
The Germans are, therefore, big favourites and well worth that tag considering how good they look - but having them as slight odds-on for this also means that we're in the very strange position of actually picking out Messi as a value bet to score anytime - at about 7/5 for a footballing icon, who takes all the free kicks and penalties and has after all bagged 31 goals this season.
Barca are usually favourites, big favourites in most cases, and it's odd to see them as over half a goal underdogs, so while normally Messi is odds-on, and as short as 1/3 at times, he's now tremendous value.
Luis Suarez is usually the popular second option for Barca backers, but while he has scored in five of his last eight games, he's not scored a Champions League goal away from the Camp Nou since 2015 - scoring 16 at home but playing 1,896 minutes in 19 different grounds and having 67 shots without scoring on the road (via Opta).
Robert Lewandowski has scored from 62% of his shots on target in this season's CL. Over five years, he averages a goal every other shot on target in the Bundesliga & the Champions League. This is not normal: https://t.co/OaqZhV7xSD
— Richard Jolly (@RichJolly) August 13, 2020
I do think Messi will score in a losing effort, but the calibre of opposition also means that Lewandowski also has a touch of value to him at 4/5 as an anytime scorer.
It's not often you'd say that, but just look at his stats - he's scored in his last eight, in 19 of his last 22 appearances and has only failed to score in six of his 44 games for Bayern this season.
Oh, and, a mind-boggling stat from Richard Jolly again shows that over the last five years he's scored with every other shot on target! So even at just odds-on he's still worth a look, while the 7/5 on him in the score-and-win market will prove popular.
We're chasing goals overall though, as I just can't imagine a scenario where Bayern don't bag at least two, and Barcelona should also score - I'd be hovering over the Bayern and 3.5 goals at 3/1, but as a more reserved punter I'm doubling the stake and about halving the odds by backing three goals in the match in a Bayern win.
Prediction: Barcelona 1-2 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best bet: Bayern to beat Barcelona & over 2.5 goals at 13/8
Best bet: Lionel Messi to score anytime at 7/5
Coul Messi leave Barcelona?
Champions League tactical preview
Barcelona v Bayern Munich Opta stats
- Barcelona and Bayern Munich have both reached the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League for the 18th time (in 24 and 23 appearances respectively), more than any other team.
- This is the first UEFA Champions League meeting between Barcelona and Bayern Munich since 2014/15, when Barcelona knocked Bayern out in the semi-final. However, Barcelona have lost more Champions League games against Bayern than any other club, losing five of their eight matches against them (W2 D1).
- Bayern Munich have won their eight UEFA Champions League matches this season, with only Barcelona in 2002/03 winning their first nine in a campaign previously; the last team to win nine consecutive Champions League matches was also Barcelona in a run between October 2014 and May 2015, with their ninth win in this sequence coming against Bayern Munich.
- Barcelona have lost just two of their last 31 UEFA Champions League matches (W19 D10) and are unbeaten in this season’s competition (W5 D3); they are one of only three teams still yet to taste defeat this season, along with opponents Bayern Munich and Manchester City.
- Since May, when football resumed in Europe’s top-five leagues, the two players involved in the most goals in all competitions are Bayern Munich’s Robert Lewandowski (14 goals, 3 assists) and Barcelona’s Lionel Messi (7 goals, 9 assists).
- Robert Lewandowski has been directly involved in 17 goals in the UEFA Champions League this season (13 goals, 4 assists), six more than any other player. In four appearances under Hans-Dieter Flick, the Pole has scored eight goals and assisted four, averaging a goal or assist every 29 minutes.
Odds correct as of 1223 on 13/8/20
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