Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Brentford-Draw (double chance) at 13/10 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Brentford to win at 19/5 (Unibet)
0.5pt Mark Flekken to be shown a card at 13/2 (SpreadEx, Sporting Index)
What a curious first half to the season it's been for Brentford.
To be good at home and bad away is nothing new, to be the Premier League's best at the former and worst at the latter is highly unusual.
As for Brighton, there were signs in the early part of this season that despite his tender years Fabian Hurzeler was to bring a level of maturity to their play that was often lacking under the gung-ho Roberto De Zerbi.
But four clean sheets across his opening 10 matches have been followed by none across the next 10.
The attacking football encouraged by Hurzeler's predecessor remained in that initial period, with 30 goals scored in the German's first 15 games.
But Albion have found the net only six times in their last five fixtures, all of which they've failed to win.
What are the best bets?
Much has been made of the Bees' contrasting fortunes, less about the nature of their contrasting schedules.
It's no simplification to say Thomas Frank's side have essentially played the bottom half at home and top half away. In that context W7 D1 L1 versus W0 D1 L6 begins to make a little more sense.
They now head to an out-of-form Brighton side who have struggled at home this season, winning only three of their eight league games.
Curiously, those wins all came against established 'big six' opponents Manchester United, Tottenham and Manchester City.
Even in those fixtures Albion didn't exactly waltz to victory. A stoppage-time winner was needed against United, and they were forced to come from two goals and a goal down against Spurs and City respectively.
There could hardly be a better opportunity for BRENTFORD to break their duck which is why at the prices I'm prepared to back them to WIN and in the DOUBLE CHANCE at appropriately balanced stakes.
- CLICK HERE to back Brentford to win with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Brentford-Draw (double chance) with Sky Bet
Ipswich, Wolves and Southampton have all left The Amex with a point this season, while Crystal Palace took all three in its most recent fixture.
Brentford haven't been totally hopeless on their travels, drawing at Everton in late November despite playing more than half the game with 10 men and only being denied victory at Fulham by two stunning stoppage-time Harry Wilson goals.
While desperately unfortunate at Craven Cottage last month, a team as well drilled as Frank's will have learned a thing or two from that cruel defeat, which is why backing MARK FLEKKEN TO BE SHOWN A CARD appeals at 13/2.
The Dutch goalkeeper has already been booked once this term for time wasting - his fourth caution since joining the club 18 months ago - as Brentford sought to hold on against Newcastle.
It doesn't feel like a stretch that he'll resort to those tactics again on Thursday evening.
Team news and predicted line-ups
To follow
Match facts
- Brighton are unbeaten in all three of their Premier League home games against Brentford (W2 D1), having lost two of their last three against them at home before their promotion.
- Brentford have won just one of their last seven league games against Brighton (D3 L3), a 2-0 home win in October 2022.
- Brentford have alternated between defeat (3) and victory (2) in their final league game in each of the last five calendar years, losing 3-1 at Crystal Palace in their last game of 2023.
- Brighton have alternated between a draw (3) and defeat (2) in their last five Premier League games, drawing 1-1 with West Ham last time out. They’ve opened the scoring in all three of these draws.
- Brentford have won fewer points away from home than any other Premier League side this season (1), while across 2024 as a whole, only Everton (10) have fewer points than the Bees (11, excluding promoted/relegated sides).
- Brighton have scored in each of their last 13 Premier League games, but have also only kept one clean sheet in this run. Indeed, both teams have scored in each of the Seagulls’ last nine league games, since a 1-0 win at Newcastle in October.
- Only bottom side Southampton have faced more shots overall (312) and more shots on target (113) in the Premier League this season than Brentford (309 shots, 112 on target).
- Coming into this round of matches, no side has scored more first half goals than Brentford in the Premier League this season (19, level with Spurs), while only Leicester and Southampton (20 each) have conceded more in the opening 45 minutes than the Bees (18).
- Just two of Brentford’s 32 goals conceded this season have come via set pieces (1x corner, 1x penalty), with no side having shipped more open play goals than the Bees so far this term (30, level with Leicester).
- Only Alexander Isak (10) has scored more Premier League goals this season without any of them coming from the penalty spot than Brentford’s Yoane Wissa (9).
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (24/12/25)
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