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Brighton v Wolves tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Brighton take on Wolves on Wednesday night and Tom Carnduff is backing a forward to be heavily involved in the attacks.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Leandro Trossard to have 1+ shots on target at Evens (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Leandro Trossard to have 3+ total shots at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
If you looked at Brighton's recent record in terms of defeats, you'd be tempted to back them for victory against Wolves. However, while they have been picking up points, they have had issues securing wins - eight of their last ten Premier League games have been draws which is staggering.
They're the only side who have failed to win a game over that period but the draws have at least seen them avoid being tagged as the team in the worst form.
For Wolves, they are without a win in four on the road following three consecutive away victories through September and into October. Essentially, this is a game where none of the outright options provide appeal - particularly at the prices available.
The good news for fans of 2020/21 Brighton is that they have reappeared in recent weeks. They've posted higher xG figures in their last three games (1.66, 1.37 and 1.99) but all three have ended with the points shared.
It's the opposite for Wolves who have lost the xG battle in their last four Premier League away contests.
With Graham Potter confirming that Leandro Trossard is 'fine' for the game - we are focusing on him and taking the generous shot lines available for the forward to be involved in the attacks.
I'm really surprised at the even money price available on TROSSARD TO HAVE 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET in this game. I understand that it's a game where the shot count won't be significantly high but those odds are too generous.
In 15 Premier League outings this season, Trossard has posted 15 shots on target. It's not as if that average has been affected by one game where he has a huge numbers - there has been at least one effort on target in eight of his last nine.
They are facing a Wolves side who concede an average of 14.5 shots per away game in the league, meaning that Trossard should see opportunities to test Jose Sa in that goal.
At a price of 11/8, perhaps boosted by the big odds for a shot on target, we're also backing TROSSARD TO HAVE 3+ TOTAL SHOTS. This is something he has done on multiple occasions already.
We've already mentioned the number of shots that Wolves concede and we can be encouraged by the number Brighton take when playing at home. The season average of 11.9 jumps up to 14.9 for games at the Amex - that's the 7th-best record in the Premier League.
Brighton's availability may impact playing to this average - a combination of Covid and injury affecting the options for Potter - but the fact that it will bring others in may see them look to strike with the aim of impressing.
For Trossard, he's averaging 2.6 shots per game but the fact that this is a home contest should give us more confidence in the above selection.
Backing Trossard to have three or more shots would have won in five of the last seven home league outings - winning in each of their last four which includes the game against Manchester City.
With both sides in mixed form and struggling to win, the appeal comes in backing TROSSARD to be involved for the hosts.
Brighton v Wolves best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Leandro Trossard to have 1+ shots on target at Evens (Sky Bet)
- 1.5pts Leandro Trossard to have 3+ total shots at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Brighton 0-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1025 GMT (14/12/21)
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