Brighton host champions Manchester City in a game of little meaning. However, Liam Kelly has found value, picking out a best bet.
Football betting tips: Brighton v Manchester City
1pt Brighton to have 11 or more shots at 9/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
Yet another dead rubber as we near the end of the Premier League season, with only the race for Europe remaining of interest entering the final two matchdays.
A higher finishing position will obviously be of some motivation for Brighton, but their safety, alongside the fact that Manchester City have wrapped up the title early, makes it difficult to envisage how this game will shape up.
Brighton conceded a late equaliser when holding West Ham, who are firmly in the previously mentioned race for Europe, to a 1-1 draw at the Amex on Saturday night, but it was a far from impressive performance, creating just 0.93 expected goals for (xGF).
That number was way below their home average of 1.86 xGF per game, so improvement on that display, at least from an attacking standpoint, can be expected given the welcome return of Lewis Dunk and Neal Maupay to the team.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Despite struggling to find the back of the net all season long, Graham Potter's side haven't had trouble in creating attempts on goal, making the shots market an interesting move here.
BRIGHTON TO HAVE 11 OR MORE SHOTS appears to be solid value heading into this match-up. The Seagulls managed to record 10 shots against a highly-motivated West Ham side, despite not being at their best.
Although Manchester City's title success has been powered by defensive solidity, their latest outing offers hope that Brighton can record what would be a high number of shots against the champions.
City played their part in a highly entertaining 4-3 win at Newcastle on Friday night, allowing an unusually lofty 2.45 expected goals against (xGA).
🎩⚽️ Ferran Torres' first hat-trick for Manchester City seals a record-breaking 12th Premier League away victory in a row!
— Infogol (@InfogolApp) May 14, 2021
😯 Fair to say they made the most of their chances with 82% of possession 👇#MCFC #NEWMCI pic.twitter.com/ncwYEjqgmp
While that number may have come from only 10 shots conceded, it does indicate that Pep Guardiola's side are vulnerable at the back when making changes.
Predicting those changes in the line-up is a difficult task, making Manchester City's price to win the game a hard sell. Instead, backing Brighton to test the City backline is the play.
Brighton v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Brighton to have 11 or more shots at 9/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
Score prediction: Brighton 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1230 BST (17/05/21)
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