The shackles are off as Brighton host champions Manchester City, James Cantrill picks out two best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score at 5/6 (10Bet)
0.5pts Pervis Estupinan to score or assist at 5/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Fresh from their coronation, Manchester City head to the south coast to face Brighton in their penultimate game of the campaign.
Arsenal’s defeat at Nottingham Forest on Saturday meant City's game with Chelsea was largely irrelevant but they beat them anyway to celebrate a third successive Premier League title, and a fifth of Pep Guardiola’s tenure.
Guardiola made nine changes from the side that breezed past Real Madrid in the Champions League, and with the FA Cup and that European final on the horizon, he may opt for a similar approach in Brighton.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
The Seagulls' 3-1 victory over Southampton all but secured a European spot - unless they lose this game and Aston Villa beat them by an incredibly wide margin at the weekend.
With the pressure off both sides, the goals could flow at the Amex which is why OVER 2.5 GOALS AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appeals.
This has clicked in more than half of Roberto De Zerbi’s league games and Albion have scored in 26 of 30 top-flight games the Italian has overseen.
Brighton have been wild lately, either scoring or conceding three or more goals in six of their last seven. They hit Wolves for six and put three past Arsenal, while Everton put five past them, Newcastle four and Nottingham Forest three.
Considering City have only failed to score in two league games this term, away at Tottenham at Liverpool, they should create chances on Wednesday.
In a game that promises goals, PERVIS ESTUPINAN’s price TO SCORE OR ASSIST looks large.
It was not until recently that he broke his domestic duck, scoring and setting up another in a Man of the Match performance at The Emirates.
This took his tally to six assists for the campaign, meaning his goal involvement (goals and assists) per 90 minute average is 0.21.
The full-back threatened to add to that tally against Southampton at the weekend, having two efforts and completing three key passes, generating an expected goal involvement (xGI) of 0.26.
Over his last seven league games he has scored one, assisted two, missed three ‘big chances’ and had 12 shots.
The 5/1 about a goal or assist does represent value based on his seasonal average, but certainly appeals given his recent form.
Brighton v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 5/6 (10Bet)
- 0.5pts Pervis Estupinan to score or assist at 5/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Score prediction: Brighton 2-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1450 BST (22/05/23)
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