Leeds travel to Brighton in what promises to be an entertaining contest. Jake Pearson provides his best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Brighton v Leeds
1.5pts Leeds to win at 47/20 (Unibet, Novibet)
Brighton currently occupy 17th position in the Premier League, seven points ahead of third-bottom Fulham, and with another season in the English top-flight looking all-but secure.
Having said that, the Seagulls face a tricky end to the season, with their final three games of the campaign coming against West Ham, Manchester City and Arsenal.
Fulham, on the other hand, face an easier run-in, with three of their last four fixtures coming against Burnley, Southampton and Newcastle.
This will have Graham Potter sweating a little more than he would like to, and it puts a fair bit of emphasis on getting a result out of this fixture as far as Brighton are concerned.
Leeds have enjoyed a brilliant return to the Premier League and are potentially on course for a top-half finish, currently residing in ninth.
They were lauded during the early part of the campaign for their gung-ho style of football, even though it was on occasion costing them valuable points.
However, since their 2-1 victory over Manchester City a few weeks back, Marcelo Bielsa looks to have adopted a much more rounded approach to matches, as his side displayed in their 0-0 draw with Manchester United last time out.
Leeds showed against both Manchester clubs that they can defend when they put their minds to it, and this could be something we see more going forward, particularly as Leeds eye up a potential challenge for Europe next season.
Brighton overestimated once again
Brighton come into this fixture without a win in their last four matches, including a 1-0 defeat to already relegated Sheffield United last week.
Leeds, on the other hand, are unbeaten in their last six matches, including against the likes of Chelsea, Manchester City, Liverpool and Manchester United.
As well as current form, there is also Brighton’s woeful home record to take into account. The Seagulls have won just twice at the Amex this season – the joint-least in the league – whilst Leeds have performer better away from home this season than they have when playing at Elland Road.
As far as the betting is concerned in this match, Brighton are priced up as the favourites, while Leeds are available at bigger than 2/1, with the draw around about the 5/2 mark.
This is something we have seen a lot this season, Brighton priced up as favourites, despite their league position, and despite the fact that they regularly fail to win football matches.
In fact, it is worth taking a look at some of the prices that Brighton have been sent off at in recent months, particularly at home.
At home to Everton they were sent off at 13/10, at home to Leicester 6/4, and at home to Crystal Palace they were 8/11. Favourites on all three occasions but with no wins to show for it.
Indeed, had you blindly backed Brighton in every game this season, you would have made a loss of roughly 10 units, which shows just how underpriced the Seagulls have been this term, particularly when considering they have beaten the likes of Liverpool and Tottenham.
This game is seventeenth vs ninth; it is a team with the joint-least home wins in the league vs a team with the sixth most away wins in the league. Yet the former are favourites, and not by a small margin, either.
Leeds are a bigger price to beat Brighton at the Amex Stadium than they were to gain away wins against Newcastle, Wolves, West Ham and Fulham.
For this reason, it is difficult to side with anything but a LEEDS WIN at the current prices.
Brighton v Leeds best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Leeds to win at 47/20 (Unibet, Novibet)
Score prediction: Brighton 0-2 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Odds correct at 1445 BST (29/04/21)
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