A huge game at the bottom of the Premier League on Wednesday as Brighton welcome Fulham. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Both Teams to Score and Under 3.5 Goals in match at 2/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Brighton v Fulham
- 19:30 GMT on BT Sport 3
- Match odds: Home Evens | Draw 23/10 | Away 14/5
Brighton have struggled to win on a regular basis during their time in the Premier League, and this season they have been held back by draws, so back-to-back victories will have been welcomed as they head into this contest. They beat Leeds before following it up with success against Blackpool in the FA Cup.
This game will be hugely significant in both Brighton and Fulham's seasons. The hosts are 17th while Fulham sit one spot below but five points off safety. It's an odd position for the hosts because their statistics rank them highly in the Premier League, they have constantly underperformed and that has left them scrapping towards the bottom.
The next few days will also be huge for Fulham as they aim to bring in a striker before the deadline. Performances have improved from December onwards but scoring has been an issue, a new addition would put added pressure on the likes of Burnley or Newcastle who are most vulnerable to dropping into the bottom-three if a Fulham revival happens.
However, that doesn't mean that Fulham haven't been scoring. The problem is that they haven't been scoring enough to win games. They struck in recent encounters against Manchester United and Tottenham and should have found the net in a narrow defeat to Chelsea.
The yes/no line on both teams to score is floating at just under even money each way but this looks like a contest where both can strike in what should be a fairly uneventful game. Rather than settle for odds-on, having both teams to score with under 3.5 goals in the game takes the odds to a much better 2/1.
A 1-1 draw (11/2 general) is the fancied outcome but that 2/1 allows for one team to grab a second. BTTS and under 3.5 has landed in four of Brighton's last six games at home, while the same can be said in three of Fulham's last four Premier League away games.
Fulham also sit bottom of the table for games with over 3.5 goals. Just two of their 18 in the league have seen four or more goals scored, while over 2.5 in just seven games puts them 16th here. They are getting used to fairly low-scoring contests, that will be welcome given their defensive showings at the beginning of the campaign.
The lively Ademola Lookman is 11/1 with some bookmakers to score the first goal, as he did in the recent defeat to Manchester United, and that is another bet worth remembering if he is in the starting line-up. However, the price on a low-scoring BTTS contest is good enough to make that the best bet in this game.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Brighton v Fulham best bets
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (26/01/21)
Opta facts
- Brighton and Hove Albion are winless in their three Premier League meetings with Fulham (D2 L1), coming from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 in their only previous meeting at the Amex Stadium in September 2018.
- Fulham have conceded nine goals in their last three away league games against Brighton (D1 L2) since their last win at the Amex in the November 2014 in the Championship, a 2-1 victory with goals from Hugo Rodallega and Lasse Vigen Christensen.
- Fulham’s 0-0 draw with Brighton in December ended a run of 196 home league games without a goalless draw – the Cottagers haven’t drawn both games with an opponent goalless in a season since 2001/02, when they did so against Leicester City.
- Brighton have won just one of their last 18 home Premier League games (D9 L8). The Seagulls have won just 18 of their 66 home games overall (27%), the lowest percentage in Premier League history among the 42 teams to play in at least three seasons.
- Following their 1-0 win at Leeds last time out, Brighton are looking to secure back-to-back Premier League victories for the first time since November 2019. However, each of their last five league wins have been away from home.
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