A huge game at the bottom of the Premier League on Wednesday as Brighton welcome Fulham. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
1pt Both Teams to Score and Under 3.5 Goals in match at 2/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Brighton have struggled to win on a regular basis during their time in the Premier League, and this season they have been held back by draws, so back-to-back victories will have been welcomed as they head into this contest. They beat Leeds before following it up with success against Blackpool in the FA Cup.
This game will be hugely significant in both Brighton and Fulham's seasons. The hosts are 17th while Fulham sit one spot below but five points off safety. It's an odd position for the hosts because their statistics rank them highly in the Premier League, they have constantly underperformed and that has left them scrapping towards the bottom.
The next few days will also be huge for Fulham as they aim to bring in a striker before the deadline. Performances have improved from December onwards but scoring has been an issue, a new addition would put added pressure on the likes of Burnley or Newcastle who are most vulnerable to dropping into the bottom-three if a Fulham revival happens.
However, that doesn't mean that Fulham haven't been scoring. The problem is that they haven't been scoring enough to win games. They struck in recent encounters against Manchester United and Tottenham and should have found the net in a narrow defeat to Chelsea.
The yes/no line on both teams to score is floating at just under even money each way but this looks like a contest where both can strike in what should be a fairly uneventful game. Rather than settle for odds-on, having both teams to score with under 3.5 goals in the game takes the odds to a much better 2/1.
A 1-1 draw (11/2 general) is the fancied outcome but that 2/1 allows for one team to grab a second. BTTS and under 3.5 has landed in four of Brighton's last six games at home, while the same can be said in three of Fulham's last four Premier League away games.
Fulham also sit bottom of the table for games with over 3.5 goals. Just two of their 18 in the league have seen four or more goals scored, while over 2.5 in just seven games puts them 16th here. They are getting used to fairly low-scoring contests, that will be welcome given their defensive showings at the beginning of the campaign.
The lively Ademola Lookman is 11/1 with some bookmakers to score the first goal, as he did in the recent defeat to Manchester United, and that is another bet worth remembering if he is in the starting line-up. However, the price on a low-scoring BTTS contest is good enough to make that the best bet in this game.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (26/01/21)
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.