It's a classic relegation six-pointer at the Amex Stadium and Paul Higham can see the hosts all-but securing survival with a crucial victory.
Brighton v Cardiff (1945 BST)
Talk about six pointers! This game could seal Cardiff's feat if they lose, but a victory would reel Brighton right back into a relegation dust-up to avoid joining Fulham and Huddersfield in the Championship next season.
The Seagulls hold a five-point lead with a game in hand so they may even see a draw as a decent result, but when you consider they've got to face Wolves, Tottenham, Arsenal and Man City in their run-in then this really is one of their few remaining chances of realistically adding three points.
The Amex has been Brighton's saviour in recent season but their home form has let them down of late with just one win and two goals in their last six.
Cardiff have earned just one win in seven themselves but they have been showing plenty of fighting spirit, and given how close it promises to be between two struggles it's a slight surprise to see the visitors are big as 3/1 to win, especially with Anthony Knockaert suspended.
Betting guide
Prediction: Brighton 1-0 Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
With so much tension around the game it shouldn't be a feat of flowing football, these games are often just decided on a mistake or a set piece and that's the way this one could go, with the hosts just edging it.
Best bet: Brighton to win & under 2.5 goals at 11/4
As above, goals will be at a premium but we're backing the Seagulls to just pip it - Brighton's 5-0 thrashing by Bournemouth could actually help them in this one as Chris Hughton will be calling for a big response.
Stats: 50+ bookings at 11/8
There are always tackles flying in during relegation battles, and in a classic six pointer the card count should be on the high side.
RequestABet: Brighton win, under 2.5 goals, 50+ bookings, under 12 match corners
Brighton v Cardiff City - Opta stats
- Brighton have only lost one of their last nine home league games against Cardiff (W3 D5), and are unbeaten in five (W1 D4) since a 1-2 defeat in the Championship in October 2005.
- Cardiff haven’t done a league double over Brighton since the 1998-99 fourth tier campaign; they won 2-1 in the reverse meeting in November.
- Brighton are unbeaten at home to newly promoted clubs in the Premier League (P4 W2 D2 L0), and have only lost two of their 15 previous top-flight matches overall against such opposition on home soil (W7 D6 L2).
- Brighton have lost consecutive home Premier League games for the very first time. They last lost three in a row at home in league competition in January 2016.
- Cardiff have lost six of their last seven Premier League games (W1), and five of their last six away from home. Indeed, each of the Bluebirds’ last three Premier League away games have ended in a 0-2 defeat.
- Only already relegated Fulham (6) and Huddersfield (4) have won fewer Premier League points in 2019 than Brighton (8).
- 50% of Cardiff’s away wins in the Premier League have come on the south coast (2/4), beating Southampton in both 2013-14 and this campaign.
- This will be the seventh managerial league meeting between Brighton’s Chris Hughton and Cardiff’s Neil Warnock; Hughton has seen his sides keep a clean sheet in five of the previous six (W4 D1 L1), but lost this season’s reverse fixture 2-1 in November.
- Brighton striker Glenn Murray has failed to score in seven of his eight league matches against Cardiff City. However, the one game he did find the net was his last such appearance at home against the Bluebirds, scoring a hat-trick for Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park in the Championship in September 2012.
- Brighton’s Glenn Murray has failed to score in his last nine Premier League home games. Despite this, he’s still scored five more league goals at the Amex Stadium this season than any other Brighton player (7).
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