Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Brentford 5+ shots on target at 21/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
BuildABet @ 22/1
- Brentford 5+ shots on target
- Brentford 4+ corners
- Keane Lewis-Potter to commit 2+ fouls
The Premier League welcomes in the New Year in west London, where the usually reliable-at-home Brentford face title hopefuls Arsenal.
The Gunners trail leaders Liverpool by nine points as we hit the halfway stage and they can't afford many slip-ups - if any - in the second-half of the campaign.
Mikel Arteta's side face a Brentford outfit in very poor form though with just one win in their last six and four defeats across that run. Nottingham Forest inflicted their first home defeat of the campaign just before Christmas.
But then Arsenal have won just four of nine on the road. Compare that to Liverpool's total of seven over the same period. It's fair to say there's some hesitance to even consider the 2/5 on an away win.
What are the best bets?
We can tap into Brentford's approach in their home games though as a potential route to success for this game.
Prices of around 2/1 with multiple bookmakers are available on BRENTFORD 5+ SHOTS ON TARGET which is interesting based on the performances of both sides in recent weeks.
Thomas Frank's side rank 15th for average shots per home game yet they sit fourth for efforts on target. There's a priority on quality over quantity when it comes to the chances.
Backing the Bees to see at least five efforts on target has been a winner in seven of their nine home league games so far, and while they haven't played many of the teams towards the top, they hit eight in the recent meeting with Newcastle.
What is interesting is that Arsenal have been conceding chances in away contests too.
Crystal Palace posted six shots on target despite losing 5-1, with Sporting getting eight in the same scoreline in the Champions League.
West Ham also had five when shipping five in a 5-2 defeat to the Gunners at the end of November. That means that this has been a winning selection for the opposition in three of Arsenal's last four away.
It's not been too common in their home games but then they have faced poor opponents in Everton - who did manage a 0-0 draw in fairness - and Ipswich who were narrowly beaten 1-0. Both offered little in attack.
Despite losing Ivan Toney, Brentford's attack hasn't suffered massively as they sit middle of the pack for expected goals (xG) created and sixth in the division for actual goals scored (32).
Whether they can find a way through this Arsenal defence is another thing but the value comes in them seeing some efforts to do just that.
Team news
Brentford continue to battle with a lengthy injury list for Wednesday's contest.
Frank could be without a total of 11 players, which includes goalkeeper Mark Flekken after he went off injured in their 0-0 draw with Brighton on Friday night.
If he isn't fit enough, Hákon Valdimarsson will replace him in the Brentford goal.
Arsenal star Bukayo Saka is still sidelined for the long term and is likely to be out for more than a couple of months after having surgery on his hamstring, according to Arteta.
Raheem Sterling, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Ben White are also unavailable through injury.
Predicted line-ups
Brentford XI: Valdimarsson; Roerslev, Collins, Kim, Lewis-Potter; Janelt, Norgaard, Damsgaard; Mbeumo, Wissa, Schade.
Arsenal XI: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Partey, Rice, Odegaard; Martinelli, Havertz, Trossard.
Match facts
- Since winning 2-0 against Arsenal in their first ever Premier League game in August 2021, Brentford are winless in their last five against the Gunners (D1 L4).
- Arsenal have won their last three away games against Brentford in all competitions without conceding a single goal. They last won four consecutive away games against an opponent while keeping a clean sheet each time against Sunderland between 2003 and 2008.
- In a run stretching back to a 1-1 draw at Chelsea in November, this is Arsenal’s ninth consecutive league game to be played in London (5 home, 4 away). It’s the Gunners’ longest such run of league games exclusively in the capital in their league history.
- Brentford have won their first league game in each of the last five calendar years. They’re also unbeaten in their last six played on New Year’s Day (W4 D2) since a 2-0 loss at Swansea in 2007.
- Arsenal have only lost their first league game in one of the last nine calendar years (W6 D2), going down 2-1 at home to Man City on New Year’s Day 2022.
- Arsenal remained unbeaten in all 10 of their Premier League London derby matches in 2024 (W8 D2). They scored 5+ goals in five of those 10 matches, as many times as they had in their previous 117 such games.
- Having been unbeaten in 14 Premier League London derbies between October 2022 and November 2023 (W8 D6), Brentford have now won just one of their last 12 in the competition (D3 L8).
- Coming into this round of matches, Brentford are one of two sides yet to keep a clean sheet at home in the Premier League this season, along with Ipswich. Their 2-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest last time out was both their first loss and the first time they’ve failed to score at the Gtech Community Stadium this term.
- Arsenal haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last seven Premier League away games, having recorded nine shutouts in their previous 10 on the road.
- Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo has been involved in 14 goals in his last 15 Premier League London derby matches (12 goals, 2 assists), while Arsenal’s Kai Havertz has had a hand in eight goals in his last eight such games in the competition (6 goals, 2 assists).
Odds correct at 1715 GMT (30/12/24)
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