Brentford host West Ham in a Premier League London derby on Sunday. Michael Beardmore provides a preview and his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Christian Eriksen 1+ shots on target at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1pt Ivan Toney to score first at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Christian Eriksen and Jarrod Bowen to score anytime at 22/1 (Sky Bet)
The bookmakers cannot separate the sides for this London derby on Sunday and that’s perhaps no surprise as resurgent and improving Brentford host continually impressive West Ham.
Overall, the Hammers are, of course, the better side but they are away here and Brentford have been a team reborn since assimilating Christian Eriksen into their starting line-up.
Granted, it’s only a small sample size but across Eriksen’s three starts, Brentford have averaged 2.27 expected goals for (xGF) per game – before his arrival, they were averaging 1.26 xGF per game.
While we have to resist the temptation to hyperbolise his impact, it should be little surprise that a player of such undoubted quality has had that kind of influence on a lower mid-table side.
Kick off: 14:00 BST, Sunday
Brentford 13/8 | Draw 9/4 | West Ham 17/10
West Ham are a dangerous team to back against but their away form has been poor in recent weeks. They have lost five of their past seven on the road and even their sole win had an asterisk beside it – FA Cup extra-time at non-league Kidderminster.
Across the season, the Hammers are conceding 1.72 xGA (Expected Goals Against) per game – and that is a huge number for a team challenging for European qualification (it drops to 1.22 at home).
Add in the exertions of playing for almost an hour (53 minutes) with 10 men in the Europa League against Lyon on Thursday and I think it’s fair to assume Brentford will have their moments here.
Given the way his fairytale comeback has unfolded, I was stunned to find ERIKSEN TO HAVE 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET at odds-against (11/10) with Sky Bet.
The Dane has troubled the keeper in three of his past four appearances for club and country, scoring twice, and he is clearly loving life back on the pitch – and why wouldn’t he?
Talking of players reborn, Ivan Toney fits into that category with eight goals in his past eight games, including five in three with playmaker Eriksen behind him.
I simply can’t ignore the Sky Bet price boost of 13/2 on TONEY TO SCORE FIRST on a proven goal-getter in such form. He’s almost half that price generally at 7/2 and has to be backed against a vulnerable, tired Hammers defence.
None of this, of course, is meant to discount the visitors, who are ridiculously talented and will definitely play their part in this one, perhaps not least in-form Jarrod Bowen, who has netted twice in two games on his return from an ankle injury.
I can't resist a small play on both Bowen, West Ham's top scorer this season, and Eriksen to score in this one given both sides' matches are averaging around three goals per game in recent weeks.
This should be an entertaining affair and 22/1 on ERIKSEN AND BOWEN TO SCORE looks a good bet at a big price.
Brentford v West Ham score prediction and best bets
- Christian Eriksen 1+ shots on target at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
- Ivan Toney to score first at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
- Christian Eriksen and Jarrod Bowen to score anytime at 22/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Brentford 2-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct 1945 BST (08/04/22)
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