Our tipster Joe Rindl can't see anything but a Brentford victory in Rotherham's must win game with the Bees on Tuesday night in the Sky Bet Championship.
Championship betting tips: Brentford v Rotherham
2pts Brentford to win to nil at 6/4 (Sporting Index)
It’s hard not to feel sorry for Rotherham. Fixtures rearranged because of Covid-19 are being squeezed into the final weeks of the season with the same rigidness of the FIFA career mode calendar in a treble winning campaign.
Since January, it’s felt like the Millers have had nine games in hand and would surely be safe if only they won one or two. But now those extra fixtures are being played almost every other day and each narrow loss makes it even more likely they’ll slump to defeat in their subsequent game.
They currently sit in 22nd. Four points off safety with four games to go.
Rotherham have already played eight matches in April. They’ve lost six this month with their last four being by the odd goal. Not only are their exhausted players losing twice a week, but they’re still fighting until the final whistle. At least if they were 3-0 down they’d be able to take it easy and get a bit of a rest.
Against Barnsley last Saturday it was a familiar story. Go a goal behind early on and chase the game for 88 minutes. The Millers ran their socks off, but left Oakwell empty handed.
Paul Warne’s side are in West London to face third place Brentford. I expect things to be competitive but the Bees - who have one eye on the Play-Offs in a few weeks time - should have the quality, and more importantly fitness, to edge past the visitors.
Brentford confirmed their spot in the top six with a win over Bournemouth on Saturday and they are favourites to go up through the Play-Offs according to Infogol. Thomas Frank’s side came so close to achieving that goal last term, losing to Fulham in extra time at Wembley after narrowly missing out on automatic promotion.
The stats this season suggests stopping them will be one heck of a challenge. Their Expected Goals For (xGF) total is second only to champions elect Norwich in terms of scoring opportunities created, while they also boast one of the best defences in the league.
Brentford have conceded chances equating to an average of 0.92 expected goals against (xGA) per game this campaign, a solid trait to hold entering such an unpredictable end-of-season shootout.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Will Brentford beat Rotherham?
It may be third from top against third from bottom but don’t expect a thrashing. Brentford have gone four games without scoring more than once at home. Rotherham haven’t even found the net in their last three away Sky Bet Championship matches.
Under 2.5 at evens does seem like a tasty bet, but there’s more profit to be had in backing BRENTFORD TO WIN TO NIL at 6/4 with Sporting Index.
That's unbelievable value. The Bees have four clean sheets from their last five and Rotherham haven’t scored in their last three on the road. You’re even covered if Rotherham do run out of steam and Brentford walk in a hatful.
Brentford v Rotherham best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Brentford to win to nil at 6/4 (Sporting Index)
Score prediction: Brentford 1-0 Rotherham (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1230 BST (26/04/21)
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