Michael Beardmore assesses Brentford v Forest, selecting two best bets.
Football betting tips: Sky Bet Championship
1pt Draw/Brentford HT/FT in Brentford v Nottingham Forest at 19/5 (Bet Victor)
1pt Penalty awarded in Brentford v Nottingham Forest at 23/10 (Sporting Index)
Brentford will be worrying they are headed for the lottery of the Championship play-offs for the second successive season as they prepare to welcome Nottingham Forest on Saturday lunchtime.
The Bees have slipped to fourth place after four defeats in their past eight – and Tuesday’s 2-2 draw at Derby will have felt like a defeat too, given Brentford were cruising at 2-0 up at half-time.
Their home form, however, has been pretty exemplary, nine wins in their past 11 in all competitions at the Brentford Community Stadium. Their stumbles have, mostly, been away from home.
Any talk of the play-offs, of course, will have Forest fans breaking out in cold sweats after their side somehow surrendered sixth place last season with a final-day 4-1 home defeat to Stoke.
Chris Hughton has solidified them after a nightmare start to this campaign under Sabri Lamouchi and they are comfortably safe from relegation but are officially the dullest side in the Championship, their matches featuring a division-low 1.78 goals per game.
Their eight matches prior to Wednesday’s 2-0 defeat by leaders Norwich read like a binary sequence – 1-1, 0-1, 0-1, 1-1, 1-0, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0 – and it doesn’t take a beautiful mind to work out that they will be trying to keep this game as tight as possible.
While I believe the Bees will win this match to keep their top-two hopes firmly alive, there’s little value in the skinny 8/11 on offer generally.
Get Brentford onside
The ‘win to nil’ is 13/8 while a Brentford victory with both teams scoring is 10/3 but I’m stuck between two stools – Brentford have kept just two clean sheets in 13 but Forest really struggle for goals.
With all that in mind, I think the best value about a home win lies in the half-time/full-time market with DRAW/BRENTFORD at 19/5 with Bet Victor – Forest will surely shut up shop but the Bees’ quality should eventually shine through.
With the goalscorer markets fairly unattractive given Forest's lack of goals and Brentford's reliance on 27-goal leading marksman Ivan Toney – who is odds-on anytime and just 5/2 to score first – I think the 23/10 Sporting Index offer on a PENALTY IN THE MATCH is a better value stab.
Five of Brentford’s past 12 matches have featured spot-kicks and that should not be a surprise given they are a team who get the ball in the opposition’s box on a regular basis but can occasionally be caught short at the back themselves.
Brentford v Nottingham Forest best bets and score prediction
- Draw/Brentford HT/FT at 19/5 (Bet Victor)
- Penalty awarded at 23/10 (Sporting Index)
Score prediction: Brentford 2-0 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 2100 GMT (17/03/21)
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