Brentford host high-flying Fulham for Monday Night Football. Liam Kelly previews the match-up and has two best bets for the game.
Fulham's excellent season should not be underestimated, seventh place after 25 games is fantastic for one of the clubs favoured for the drop at the start of the campaign
For a team to overachieve in such a manner, however, a lot of things must fall right. They have for Marco Silva's side.
That's not to say they've been lucky, but Fulham's 2-0 FA Cup win over Leeds on Tuesday night was a nice microcosm of their season.
The Cottagers looked fairly porous defensively, as they did before the World Cup break, with Leeds missing plenty of chances, and Fulham dispatched a couple of the few opportunities fashioned, like they have in recent Premier League games.
Ultimately, in regards to this match-up, Brentford just might be the better team in spite of what the league table says.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Monday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
If Fulham's defence is, indeed, gettable, which I think it is, the huge handful that is IVAN TONEY can cause the visitors plenty of problems.
He makes appeal TO SCORE ANYTIME at the standout price of 7/5 with bet365.
Convincing people to back Toney to score shouldn't be too difficult at this point. Brentford's striker is profilic, netting 14 times in 21 Premier League games this season.
That total is far from fortuitous, even if Toney has scored four penalties, getting himself in to scoring positions regularly. He's registered 12.26 non-penalty expected goals (xG) this term, an average of 0.54 xG per 90 minutes.
All of the above would still be true if João Palhinha was playing, but the fact the Portuguese midfield destroyer is suspended for this game makes a Toney goal and the second selection — the biggest in terms of points staked — an easy choice.
BRENTFORD TO WIN appears outstanding value at odds-against in places.
Thomas Frank's side are simply a very solid Premier League team. Sitting ninth in the table entering this game, the Bees fully deserve their lofty position based on a number of metrics, not least their home displays.
Brentford Community Stadium is a bit of a fortress, with Monday's hosts losing just once in 12 matches this league campaign, averaging 1.83 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.23 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
With camera focus squarely on Brentford once again, they should show themselves to be too strong for a Palhinha-less Fulham that have looked vulnerable recently, despite some good results.
Backing the Bees to win with Toney making the news for positive reasons makes sense.
Brentford v Fulham best bets and score prediction
2.5pts Brentford to win at 21/20 (Betfred, SpreadEx)
1pt Ivan Toney to score anytime at 7/5 (bet365)
Score prediction: Brentford 2-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 2200 GMT (02/03/23)
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