Pre-tournament favourites Brazil take on South Korea in the World Cup Round of 16. Jake Osgathorpe has a best bet.
Pre-tournament favourites Brazil haven't done anything wrong so far at this World Cup, with even the 1-0 defeat to Cameroon in matchday three a dominant display and an unfortunate loss (xG: CAM 0.90 - 3.13 BRA).
They are still the team to beat, and I find it very hard to see South Korea causing a major upset and knocking Selecao out of the 2022 World Cup.
However, they do deserve credit for making it out of a tough group, and it's fair to say that they rightly progressed.
After all, the Taeguk Warriors won the xG battle in all three group contests.
Kick-off time: 19:00 GMT, Monday
TV Channel: ITV 1
So, while Brazil are fully expected to prove too strong here, South Korea can keep this respectable.
They allowed 1.21 xGA per game in Group H, a decent effort against three strong attacking sides, so can be expected to keep things tight here, just as all of Brazil's opponents so far have done.
That is because Brazil like to play in a controlled, low-scoring manner, and also because their opponents are so fearful of their attacking players that they retreat early and sit deep.
This has been the case for some time, with the control element in particular catching the eye, meaning they are the best defensive team on the planet.
Across World Cup qualifying they allowed just 0.44 xGA per game, and so far in Qatar they have shipped just 0.51 xGA per game. It seems unlikely then that the underdogs will score here.
It is a matter of if Brazil can break their opponents down, and the signs are that they will be able to given they have averaged 2.22 xGF per game so far at the World Cup.
I expect this to be fairly routine for the Brazilians, and see value in backing them to win in their vintage controlled style, making BRAZIL TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS a confident bet.
It was between this selection and a Brazil to win to nil, but given they are nearly the same price, the extra wiggle room of a South Korean consolation made greater appeal.
Brazil v South Korea best bets and score prediction
- 2.5pts Brazil to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 10/11 (Sky Bet, bet635, William Hill)
Score prediction: Brazil 2-0 South Korea (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 1550 GMT (03/12/22)
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