Football betting tips: League Two
1pt Jack Shepherd to be carded at 5/1 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 10/1
- Bradford to win
- Both teams to score
- Andy Cook 2+ goals
Bradford have made a very average start to their League Two campaign.
Three wins, three draws and three defeats leaves them on 12 points, 13th in the table with a goal difference of one.
The underlying data suggests that is exactly what they deserve with 11 goals scored from an xG of 11.7 and 10 goals conceded from an xGA of 10.4.
The Bantams faithful may argue they ought to be doing better as unrest grows with the squad but more specifically Graham Alexander and the general lack of an identity. The Bradford boss cuts an apologetic figure and there is genuine confusion as to what the plan is at Valley Parade.
It all sounds very cliché but the regressing form shows as much. Bradford took seven points from the first nine on offer but have picked up five points from the last six matches with Alexander switching from a back three to a back four.
Creativity has been lacking recently as well. Bradford have failed to generate at least 1.0 xG in three of their last four games, figures a little skewed as three of those fixtures have come away from home. They remain unbeaten on their own patch and have lost only six league games at home since the beginning of last season, picking up points in 78% of the 27 matches; a crumb of comfort with Newport arriving in West Yorkshire on Monday.
Newport don’t travel well either.
Their only away win domestically this term came at Morecambe, one of only two fourth-tier sides without a win. The defeats came against Cheltenham, Swindon and Barrow, with Newport conceding nine in the process and failing to score in two of those games. With the exception of Barrow, these are not sides expected to finish in the top half.
This poor away form is nothing new for the Exiles, who lost 15 of their 23 games last term.
Even considering this, Bradford’s 4/9 price doesn’t appeal much so what is the best way in?
What are the best bets?
The player card market isn’t usually available for League Two fixtures but thanks to the presence of Sky, it is on Monday. It is certainly worth dipping into especially as the referee, Thomas Kirk, has brandished 38 yellows in seven games this term.
JACK SHEPHERD’s price of 5/1 TO BE CARDED is the standout.
The Barnsley loanee was plucked from Pontefract Collieries in the seventh tier of English football at the beginning of last season and quickly broke into the Reds first team under Neill Collins.
Although he started well, Shepherd’s lack of experience did become apparent which is why he was loaned out to Cheltenham before joining Bradford.
Pacy and classy on the ball, the central defender is still a little raw which goes a little way to explaining his poor disciplinary record.
He has notched up seven bookings and one red card, six of which have come domestically (cards per 90 of 0.30).
Team news
Callum Johnson is Bradford’s only absentee and with no fresh injury concerns, Alexander could name the same XI which drew at Morecambe.
This would see the settled back five of Sam Walker in goal, Jay Benn, Cheick Diabate, Shepherd and Lewis Richards continue and Calum Kavanagh continue alongside Andy Cook.
As for Newport, with no fresh injury concerns Nélson Marques Jardim could name the same XI that beat Salford.
Cameron Antwi and Courtney Baker-Richardson are pushing for starts in attack.
Predicted line-ups
Bradford: Walker; Benn, Diabate, Shepard, Richards; Walker, Smallwood, Oduor, Wright; Kavanagh, Cook
Newport: Townsend; Evans, Jameson, Baker, Glennon; Wildig, Evans, Morris; Kamwa, Antwi, Baker-Richardson
Odds correct at 1600 BST (04/10/24)
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