Premier League tips: Betting previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Boxing Day action, including Leicester v Liverpool

Recommended bets

2pts Liverpool to beat Leicester at 23/20

1pt West Ham to win-to-nil v Palace at 5/1

1pt Tottenham to win and under 3.5 total goals v Brighton at 8/5

0.5pt Willian to score anytime at 7/2

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

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Leicester v Liverpool (Paul Higham)

• 2000 GMT kick-off on Amazon Prime Video

Not quite the title decider it threatened to be after Leicester drew with Norwich and lost at Man City, which saw Liverpool tighten their stranglehold on the Premier League without even playing! Jurgen Klopp's side were off in Qatar becoming world champions at the time...

Confidence will have been boosted hugely by the win and, as long as the players have recovered from the journey, Liverpool will arrive at the King Power in high spirits for a game where they could basically put the Foxes out of the title race for good.

Brendan Rodgers' side have been brilliant, but against the big sides they have just fallen short so far and they'll need to attack a bit more this time around in front of their home fans.

Liverpool have looked borderline unbeatable this season though and you won't get too many more chances to back them at odds-against to win a game of football this season. You may as well take advantage while you can.

Prediction: Leicester 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Best bet: Liverpool to beat Leicester at 23/20

Key stats

• Leicester have lost four of their last five Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D1) since winning 3-1 in February 2017.
• Liverpool have won their last two Premier League away games against Leicester – they’ve never won three consecutive away matches against them in top-flight history.
• Liverpool have won 29 Premier League games in 2019 – only once in their history have the Reds won more top-flight games in a single calendar year (33 in 1982).
• At the start of the day, Liverpool are 10 points clear at the top of the Premier League table. In English top-flight history, the only side to be 10+ points clear at Christmas and not win the title were Newcastle United in 1995-96.

Tottenham v Brighton (George Pitts)

• 1230 GMT kick-off on Amazon Prime Video

The early kick-offs on Boxing Day are rarely inspiring.

Modern-day footballers save their celebrations and spend Christmas Day training, eating clean and preparing at the team hotel, but sometimes it feels like they have gone all out on the big day. The atmosphere is generally flatter than usual (hungover/tired crowds?) and the matches lack impetus.

Brighton beat Spurs towards the end of Mauricio Pochettino's reign in October and, as impressive as the Seagulls have been under Graham Potter, they have the league's fifth-worst away record having won just twice on the road all season.

After losing to Chelsea, Spurs will be keen to bounce back to keep their top-four hopes alive. Backing the hosts to have a low-scoring victory is worth considering at a best price of 8/5.

Heung-min Son is suspended and his potential replacement, Ryan Sessegnon, could be worth a small play to score anytime at 7/1 but the hosts edging it is the preference to get us started for the day.

Prediction: Spurs 1-0 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Best bet: Tottenham to win and under 3.5 total goals at 8/5

Key stats

• Tottenham are unbeaten in their last 13 top-flight Boxing Day games (W10 D3) since losing 0-2 at Portsmouth in 2003. Their last such home defeat was back in 1991 against Nottingham Forest (1-2).
• Tottenham’s defeat to Chelsea last time out ended a run six Premier League home games without defeat (W4 D2) – they haven’t lost consecutive home games in the competition since January.
• Brighton have won just five points from their last 21 available in the Premier League (W1 D2 L4), with four of those points being won in London (2-1 vs Arsenal, 1-1 vs Crystal Palace).
• Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored seven goals in just four Premier League games on Boxing Day. In the history of the competition, only Robbie Fowler (9), Alan Shearer (8) and Robbie Keane (8) have scored more on 26th December.
• Tottenham boss José Mourinho has never lost in seven Premier League games on Boxing Day (W5 D2), managing more games without defeat on the day than any other manager in the competition.

Aston Villa v Norwich (George Pitts)

• 1500 GMT kick-off on Amazon Prime Video

Villa are on the slide. They dropped into the relegation zone after losing at home to Southampton on Saturday and Dean Smith's side suffered another huge blow when they lost John McGinn to an ankle fracture, leaving them to rely on Jack Grealish even more.

Norwich, though, are plugging away in the bottom three but struggle to hold leads and have won just one of their last 13. But the initial feeling is that the Canaries can capitalise and get revenge for their 5-1 reverse in October.

Daniel Farke's side are still scoring - finding the back of the net in eight of their last 11 - so goals are not an issue. As well as Teemu Pukki, Todd Cantwell has contributed here there and they have plenty of other capable options going forward.

It may take a couple of strikes for City to come out on top in the West Midlands - as they did last season in their double over Villa - and it is worth looking at them to score at least twice at Villa Park.

The +1 handicap at a fraction under evens is tempting, but the 5/4 on them to find the back of the net a couple of times is the choice here, but still considered risky and there are most definitely preferences elsewhere.

Prediction: Aston Villa 0-2 Norwich (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)

Best bet: Norwich to score 2+ goals at 5/4

Key stats

• Aston Villa have conceded as many goals in their last two Premier League home games (7) as they had in their previous seven at Villa Park this season.
• After winning five consecutive Premier League games in which they scored the first goal, Norwich have dropped points on each of the last four occasions they’ve opened the scoring in the competition (D2 L2).
• Aston Villa have won only once in their last nine Premier League matches (W1 D1 L7), losing each of the last four in a row. Villa boss Dean Smith has never lost five consecutive league games in his managerial career.
• Norwich’s Todd Cantwell has seven goal involvements in 18 Premier League games this season (5 goals, 2 assists) – more than double the amount he registered in 24 Championship appearances last term (1 goal, 2 assists).

Bournemouth v Arsenal (George Pitts)

• 1500 GMT kick-off on Amazon Prime Video

Mikel Arteta took charge of his first Arsenal training session on Monday, so it is a short space of time to expect an impact but the new manager bounce does not take long to kick in.

The Spaniard spoke very well in his press conference unveiling last week and he can change the mentality of this team slightly and give them a much-needed boost.

Bournemouth - who have now lost six of their last seven - are gravitating towards the drop zone and it is difficult to know what kind of performance to expect from them, but the feeling here is Arsenal will at least start well (for once).

They have led at the break on just four occasions this season, while the Cherries have trailed at the interval in a third of their games, and the 13/8 price on the visitors to be ahead is tempting.

Arteta will probably return Alexandre Lacazette to the side alongside Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and with all Bournemouth's injury problems the Gunners can certainly capitalise.

Prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Best bet: Arsenal to be leading at half-time at 31/20

Key stats

• Arsenal have won seven of their nine Premier League meetings with Bournemouth (D1 L1), never failing to score against the Cherries.
• Bournemouth are winless in all four of their Premier League Boxing Day games (D2 L2), with all of these matches coming against London sides. They’ve drawn both such games at home (0-0 with Crystal Palace, 3-3 with West Ham).
• Bournemouth have lost six of their last seven Premier League games, with the exception being a 1-0 win at Chelsea in that run. At home, the Cherries are looking to avoid losing four consecutive league games for the first time since September 2011.
• Arsenal drew 0-0 at Everton in their last away league game – they’ve not kept back-to-back clean sheets on the road in the Premier League since February 2016, the second game of which was a 2-0 win at Bournemouth and followed a goalless draw.
• Arsenal will be starting a top-flight Boxing Day game in the bottom half of the table for the first time since 1983-84 (12th), when they won 4-2 against Tottenham Hotspur at White Hart Lane.
• Bournemouth have had just two shots on target in their last 273 minutes of Premier League football and have failed to land a single shot on target in two of their last three matches.
• Mikel Arteta will take charge of his first game as Arsenal manager in this match. At 37y 275d on the day of the game, he’s the youngest person to take charge of the Gunners since Terry Neill in 1976 (34y 105d in his first game).

Chelsea v Southampton (George Pitts)

• 1500 GMT kick-off on Amazon Prime Video

Chelsea will be keen to bounce back from recent home defeats to West Ham and Bournemouth but the win over local rivals Tottenham at the weekend will go some way to doing that.

They moved four points clear of Sheffield United in fifth and Frank Lampard's side were impressive in dismantling Jose Mourinho's game plan. They have performed well against the bigger teams recently - they were also unfortunate to lose to both Man City and Liverpool - and now have to look at avoiding another slip up against a bottom half side.

Ralph Hasenhuttl's Saints will be fighting tooth and nail for everything and the win at Villa gives them hope of survival. They also performed well at the Etihad and their away displays have been better than most of those at St Mary's.

Tammy Abraham can end a three-game goalless drought but at odds-on that has little appeal. But staying in the anytime market, Willian was outstanding at Spurs, scoring two, and the Brazilian is nicely priced at 7/2 here.

He has four goals to his name this term and in the recent Stamford Bridge defeat to the Cherries the forward had three efforts. With confidence high, he can make his mark again here.

Prediction: Chelsea 3-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Best bet: Willian to score anytime at 7/2

Key stats

• Chelsea have won seven of their last eight Premier League games against Southampton (D1), since a 1-3 home loss in October 2015.
• Southampton and Chelsea drew 0-0 in this exact fixture last season – Saints have never kept consecutive away clean sheets against the Blues in the top-flight.
• Chelsea are currently unbeaten in their last 14 Premier League Boxing Day games (W9 D5), the longest such run without defeat in the competition’s history. Their last loss was back in 2003 against Charlton (2-4).
• Southampton have scored in each of their last eight Premier League away games, their longest such streak in the competition since a run of 11 between December 2013-April 2014. Indeed, only Man City (20) and Liverpool (12) are on longer current runs of scoring in consecutive away games in the competition than Saints.
• Danny Ings scored Southampton’s goal in their 1-4 defeat in the reverse fixture against Chelsea. In the Premier League era, only Rickie Lambert (2012-13) and Kevin Davies (1997-98) have scored in both games against the Blues in a single season for the club.
• Chelsea’s Willian has netted four goals in 17 Premier League appearances, one more than he netted in 32 games last term. Willian, who scored twice last time out vs Spurs, hasn’t found the net in consecutive PL games since October 2015.

Crystal Palace v West Ham (George Pitts)

• 1500 GMT kick-off on Amazon Prime Video

Liverpool's Club World Cup involvement at the weekend meant West Ham were able to sit out the weekend and rest their legs going into the busy festive period.

Two wins in four probably bought Manuel Pellegrini a bit more time (he remains favourite in the sack race) and they could be boosted by the return of Lukasz Fabianski.

The Hammers boss has hinted at the Polish goalkeeper potentially being passed fit for the clash and he has been sorely missed - they lost just one of their first seven games of the season with him between the sticks. Without him, they have lost seven of 11.

His presence will shore up the back line a little and Palace, who lost at Newcastle on Saturday, have a number of injuries to deal with including Gary Cahill and Scott Dann, so James Tomkins and Mamadou Sakho look set to form a partnership at the back.

That is not too convincing and Palace's home form has been indifferent, with three wins, three draws and three defeats, so a West Ham win would be no surprise. With Palace being the second-lowest scorers in the division, an away win-to-nil looks excellent value.

Prediction: Palace 0-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Best bet: West Ham to win-to-nil at 5/1

Key stats

• West Ham have only lost both Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace in a season once before, in the 2013-14 campaign when the Eagles were newly promoted.
• Crystal Palace’s home games have seen fewer goals scored than other Premier League sides this season, with just 15 scored at Selhurst Park this season (F7 A8). Indeed, since the start of last season, Selhurst Park (2.04) has seen fewer goals-per-game than any other ground to host a Premier League match (57 goals in 28 games).
• Only bottom side Watford (10) have failed to score in more Premier League games this season than Crystal Palace (8). In Premier League history, of the 20 teams to have played 400+ games in the competition, only Sunderland (37.8%) have failed to score in a higher ratio of their matches than the Eagles (36.2% - 147/406).
• Crystal Palace boss Roy Hodgson has managed more Premier League games on Boxing Day without winning than any other current Premier League manager (5). However, all five of his games have finished in a draw, meaning only José Mourinho (7) has managed more games without defeat on that day in the competition.
• Sébastien Haller has scored in just one of his last nine Premier League games for West Ham, though it was the winner at Southampton in their last game. Despite this, he’s still the Hammers’ top league scorer this season with five goals.

Everton Burnley (Paul Higham)

• 1500 GMT kick-off on Amazon Prime Video

Carlo Ancelotti's bid to get Everton into the Champions League with a home tilt against a Burnley side that will offer a good yardstick for the new Toffees boss. The Clarets are flying under the radar but are quietly having a good season - only four teams have more wins than their seven so far.

Sean Dyche's side have only won twice on the road, but they have both come in the last three trips, and they are a real threat when they can get their defending right. All seven of their wins have come with a clean sheet.

Everton have been transformed by Duncan Ferguson and will now hope yet another boost from Ancelotti's debut, which will mean another big atmosphere at Goodison. We know Burnley simply do not win when they concede, and there's every chance Everton find the net here and go on to seal the victory.

Prediction: Everton 2-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Best bet: Everton to beat Burnley & both teams to score at 5/2

Key stats

• None of the 11 Premier League meetings between Everton and Burnley have finished level, with Everton winning six to Burnley’s five.
• Burnley have won five of their 11 Premier League meetings with Everton – no side have they beaten more in the competition.
• Burnley have won just one of their last 15 away league games played on Boxing Day (D4 L10), with that victory coming at Barnsley in the Championship in 2010 (2-1).
• Following their goalless draw with Arsenal last time out, Everton are looking to record back-to-back clean sheets in the Premier League for the first time since their opening two games this season.

Sheffield United v Watford (Paul Higham)

• 1500 GMT kick-off on Amazon Prime Video

Nigel Pearson got all the plaudits but it was Troy Deeney who was the catalyst for Watford's shock win over Man United, but this trip to Bramall Lane is probably a tougher examination of their new Watford resurgence.

Chris Wilder's side just keep on going with three wins on the spin and just one defeat in the last 11 keeping them in fifth place in the table as they continue their amazing season. All of their four league defeats have come at home though so Watford will arrive confident they can continue their improvement.

The Hornets will not get as many chances handed to them from this United side but they did look a side transformed on Sunday, and with the Blades not really appealing as odds-on favourites, the draw seems a better way to go.

Prediction: Sheff Utd 1-1 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Best bet: Watford to draw with Sheff Utd at 12/5

Key stats

• Watford are unbeaten in their last four league meetings with Sheffield United (W3 D1), keeping a clean sheet each time. Only against Stoke (6 between 2005-2015) and Brighton (5 between 1968-1973) have they recorded more successive shutouts in league football.
• Watford are winless in their last seven Boxing Day away games (D3 L4), with the Hornets failing to score in six of these. However, only one of their last 12 Boxing Day games has been away from home (2-2 vs Chelsea in 2015).
• Sheffield United haven’t won four consecutive Premier League matches since August 1993, winning the final three games in 1992/93 and on the opening day of the 1993/94 season.
• Since the start of the 2016/17 season, Sheffield United manager Chris Wilder has won 83 matches in the top four tiers of English league football – 11 more than any other English manager (Paul Tisdale and Paul Cook on 72).

Man United v Newcastle (Paul Higham)

• 1730 GMT kick-off on Amazon Prime Video

Yet again Man United are on the bounce back trail after a horror show at Watford and it will be a tricky one against Steve Bruce's improving Newcastle, who beat the Red Devils in the reverse fixture and go into the game level on points with the hosts.

The Magpies have actually won more games that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side this season, and at least they have a clear blueprint for success as it's now the worst secret in football that the Red Devils cannot break down a strong defensive side who don't give them space in behind.

Newcastle have been a patchy away side, impressing in wins at Sheffield United and West Ham but underwhelming at Burnley and Aston Villa, and the hosts have lost just once at Old Trafford this season so should be able to get back to winning ways.

Prediction: Man Utd 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Best bet: Manchester Utd to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 6/4

Key stats

• Manchester United have lost just one of their last 34 top-flight home meetings with Newcastle United (W24 D9), going down 0-1 in December 2013 under David Moyes.
• Newcastle United won the reverse fixture against Manchester United 1-0 in October – they’ve not done the double over the Red Devils in the top-flight since the 1930-31 campaign.
• Manchester United haven’t lost a home league game on Boxing Day since 1978 (0-3 vs Liverpool), winning 15 and drawing three such games at Old Trafford since.
• Manchester United have won just one of their last 17 Premier League matches when they’ve enjoyed more possession than their opponents (W1 D8 L8), a 3-1 win at Norwich City in October.

Odds correct as of 1545 GMT on 23/12/19

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