After recording a healthy profit on last weekend’s Papa John Trophy finals, EFL expert Michael Beardmore turns his attention to two big games in the Championship promotion battle.
Football betting tips: Sky Bet Championship
1pt Draw/Brentford HT/FT in Brentford v Nottingham Forest at 19/5 (Bet Victor)
1pt Penalty awarded in Brentford v Nottingham Forest at 23/10 (Sporting Index)
0.5pt e.w Leandro Bacuna to score first in Swansea v Cardiff at 22/1 (Bet365) (e.w terms 1/3 odds 1-98 places)
0.5pt Sean Morrison to score any time in Swansea v Cardiff at 10/1 (William Hill, Betfred)
Brentford v Nottingham Forest
- Read the full preview here
- Kick-off: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Brentford will be worrying they are headed for the lottery of the Championship play-offs for the second successive season as they prepare to welcome Nottingham Forest on Saturday lunchtime.
The Bees have slipped to fourth place after four defeats in their past eight – and Tuesday’s 2-2 draw at Derby will have felt like a defeat too, given Brentford were cruising at 2-0 up at half-time.
Their home form, however, has been pretty exemplary, nine wins in their past 11 in all competitions at the Brentford Community Stadium. Their stumbles have, mostly, been away from home.
I think the best value about a home win lies in the half-time/full-time market with DRAW/BRENTFORD at 19/5 with Bet Victor – Forest will surely shut up shop but the Bees’ quality should eventually shine through.
With the goalscorer markets fairly unattractive given Forest's lack of goals and Brentford's reliance on 27-goal leading marksman Ivan Toney – who is odds-on anytime and just 5/2 to score first – I think the 23/10 Sporting Index offer on a PENALTY IN THE MATCH is a better value stab.
Score prediction: Brentford 2-0 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 2100 GMT (17/03/21)
Swansea v Cardiff
- Read the full preview here
- Kick-off: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
South Wales derbies are always fiercely-fought affairs but few encounters between Swansea and Cardiff down the years will have had as much riding them on this one.
Swansea looked in the box seat for the second automatic promotion spot behind leaders Norwich just a couple of weeks ago but Watford have come up on the rails to overtake them after winning eight of their past nine.
Of the two, there’s arguably less pressure on Cardiff, who had probably given up on a top-six spot until McCarthy’s appointment kick-started that winning run.
The Cardiff scoring markets are where the value is to be found in this one and I fancy LEANDRO BACUNA TO SCORE FIRST at 22/1 with Bet365.
For me, those odds are, understandably, based on Bacuna’s history as a defensive player but he has been pushed further forward by McCarthy in his past two starts, registering 10 shots in the process and scoring twice in the 4-0 win over Derby.
A statistic we ignore at our peril is Cardiff’s propensity to score from set-pieces this season – they have netted a whopping 22 from such situations, eight more than any other Championship side.
Centre-half Sean Morrison has scored five of those and it is definitely worth a small play on MORRISON TO SCORE ANYTIME at 10/1 with William Hill and Betfred. He’s 14s to score first with several firms so 10s at any time screams value.
Score prediction: Swansea 1-1 Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 2100 GMT (17/03/21)
Follow Sporting Life on social - find us on Facebook here or tweet @SportingLifeFC
Related football content
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
