Joe Townsend has three best bets for the Sky Bet Championship promotion clash between Swansea and Bournemouth, including a 14/1 goalscorer shout.
Football betting tips: Bournemouth v Swansea
1pt Swansea to win at 12/5 (SBK)
0.5pt Conor Hourihane to score anytime at 11/2 (General)
0.5pt Conor Hourihane to score first at 14/1 (bet365)
Bournemouth's campaign is in danger of dropping off a cliff.
The sacking of Jason Tindall, and subsequent appointment of Jonathan Woodgate until the end of the season, hasn't triggered the kind of upturn they would have been hoping for.
Two wins from their last six Sky Bet Championship games, including a crucial 3-2 defeat by sixth-placed Barnsley on Saturday, means the Cherries are five points off the play-off places.
Swansea, meanwhile, have shrugged off surprising beatings by Huddersfield (4-1) and Bristol City (3-1) to maintain their push for automatic promotion by picking up four wins from their last six fixtures.
Victory on Tuesday night could very well see the Swans move into second place.
Their underlying numbers haven't been great this term, with Infogol's league table based on performance having them down in midtable.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
But while they 'deserve' to be 11th in those rankings, the fact they are forecast to finish fourth based on expected goals (xG) is a reflection of their improvement in recent weeks.
Steve Cooper's side have the xG battle in five straight Championship games, their best run so far this term. For the first time, performances are matching results. So for SWANSEA TO WIN to be the outside shot at 14/5 is quite a shock.
One player in particular has been crucial to the Welsh side's upturn in performance levels, and that is CONOR HOURIHANE.
The impact of his January arrival from Aston Villa is impossible to overstate.
The Republic of Ireland midfielder has scored five goals in 11 league games, and not only that, he has brought with him some extra steel an experience to help knit together Swansea's immensely talented young team.
🤔 One of the most underrated players in the @SkyBetChamp?
— Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) March 16, 2021
📈 Conor Hourihane is 14/1 to score first (11/2 anytime) for Swansea's game with Bournemouth tonight.
👀 He's scored in every other match since joining on loan from Aston Villa.
👇 #swans #avfc @swanseabeat
In pure goal-scoring terms, Hourihane's five efforts have come from an xG of just 1.87, reflecting his tendency to arrive late on the edge of the box to fire home low-percentage chances.
Perhaps the bookies are looking at those numbers too, as the best price of 14/1 for HOURIHANE TO SCORE FIRST at the Vitality Stadium makes little sense, not does the general offering of 11/2 for HOURIHANE TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Bournemouth v Swansea best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Swansea to win at 12/5
- 0.5pt Conor Hourihane to score anytime at 11/2
- 0.5pt Conor Hourihane to score first at 14/1
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Swansea (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 0900 GMT (16/03/21)
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