Bournemouth host Southampton in the FA Cup quarter final, and Jake Osgathorpe previews the game and provides best bets.
Football betting tips: Bournemouth v Southampton
1pt Bournemouth to qualify at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Bournemouth to win in 90 mins at 16/5 (Sky Bet)
We have a south-coast derby to kick off the FA Cup quarter finals, with Sky Bet Championship Bournemouth hosting Premier League Southampton, and a day out at Wembley awaits the winners.
There are question marks surrounding both sides heading into this clash though, making it a very difficult betting heat.
It has taken a while, but I am coming around to this Bournemouth team.
Even when flying high at the start of the season in the Championship, I wasn’t sold on the Cherries under the guidance of Jason Tindall.
They sat second in the table heading into the New Year, and had performed like a top six team based on expected goals (xG), but since the turn of the year they have performed like a mid-table team.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Are Bournemouth turning a corner?
Based on expected goals, they have ranked as the ninth best team in the Championship this calendar year, but the recent signs are that things are beginning to turn a corner.
Despite replacing Tindall with Jonathan Woodgate, a marginal upgrade, a combination of players returning to injury and some tough games seems to have straightened them out.
In their last three home games they have played three of the current top six in the Championship, winning two of those against Watford and most recently Swansea, in what was arguably their best performance of the campaign (xG: BOU 2.10 – 0.32 SWA).
Their starting XI in that game looked really good on paper, with a midfield three of Philip Billing, Jefferson Lerma and Jack Wilshere providing excellent balance for the teams attacking players.
Junior Stanislas and Arnaut Danjuma flanked Dominic Solanke on the night, and that is a front three that I think can cause Southampton some issues.
Southampton still struggling
Southampton suffered a 2-1 defeat at home to Brighton last weekend, their 10th loss in the last 12 league games, so confidence is likely on the floor at this stage.
After such a hot start to the season, the Saints have come crashing back down to earth and are now nervously looking over their shoulders, being just seven points above the drop zone.
Even when flying at the start of the campaign, their underlying numbers were that of a bottom half side, and they continue to underwhelm.
Only five teams in the league have been worst in attack this season, with Southampton averaging just 1.13 xGF per game so far this campaign. This poor process, coupled with the absence of their best striker Danny Ings, is a huge cause for concern.
Cherries look to be value
Despite Southampton being able to field their first-choice defence, they still appear especially vulnerable at the back. Whether that’s due to set-up, or more likely the intensity at which they play at coming back to bite them.
Either way, the fact that they are conceding plenty of goals and struggling to create chances, I can’t be backing the Saints at near odds on, no matter if they are playing a side in the league below.
BOURNEMOUTH TO WIN at 16/5 looks very big to me, as a team with the kind of quality they have really are capable of causing an upset, and they will be buoyed by a big win in midweek.
I recommend a small stake on that one, with a slightly bigger stake on the BOURNEMOUTH TO QUALIFY.
While Southampton have beaten some decent teams to get to this stage, notably Arsenal and Wolves, they are weaker in personnel heading into this one, and their poor recent run has been extended further.
The first goal could be crucial in this one, as if the hosts strike first, Southampton’s heads could well drop in a ‘here we go again’ thought.
Backing the Cherries in the to qualify market gives you extra security should the game go into extra-time, and it is still a very juicy 7/4.
Bournemouth v Southampton best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Bournemouth to qualify at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pt Bournemouth to win in 90 mins at 16/5 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1615 GMT (17/03/21)
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