Joe Townsend previews a huge clash in the Sky Bet Championship, where Bournemouth can clinch promotion or be replaced in second by Nottingham Forest with just one game to go.
Thank you fixture computer. The only way this game would be more dramatic would be if it was being played on the final day of the Sky Bet Championship season.
The permutations are very straightforward. If second-placed Bournemouth win they are promoted, if third-placed Forest win, they move into second heading into the last day, if it's drawn then Bournemouth go into the weekend needing just a point.
- Bournemouth P: 44 W: 23 D: 13 L: 8 GD: 33 PTS: 82
- Nottm Forest P: 44 W: 23 D: 10 L: 11 GD: 34 PTS 79
Kick-off time: 19:00 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Should Forest narrowly miss out on automatic promotion, it will feel like a season of what might have been unless they complete the job in the play-offs.
No team has taken more Championship points since Steve Cooper replaced Chris Hughton as manager in September, with the former Swansea boss securing 25 wins and nine draws from his 40 games at the helm.
It's remarkable that Forest were bottom of the table when Cooper arrived.
He has transformed them from a team with a negative expected goal difference destined to struggle to one seemingly getting better and better.
Had this match been taking place a couple of weeks ago, I wouldn't have hesitated to back Forest against a stumbling Bournemouth team, but Scott Parker's men do seem to have found some form just when they needed it.
A rip-roaring comeback from 3-0 down to draw 3-3 at Swansea - a match where the disparity in the xG battle was as wild as you are ever likely to see (xG: SWA 0.27-5.35 BOU) before wiping the floor with Blackburn 3-0 away from home at the weekend.
Parker's side haven't actually been in that poor form, losing just once in 12 matches, it's just the draws (six in that period) combined with Forest's relentless run that has seen the gap narrow so significantly.
In a match of such high stakes it's hard to imagine this game being a gung-ho, all guns blazing affair. Often, it's the opposite.
Forest have lost just once in the league since January, a 1-0 defeat at play-off chasing Luton. I'm anticipating a very similar contest, and with two prices really sticking out as market leaders I'm happy to oppose goals at the Vitality.
BetVictor are the only bookmaker to be pricing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' up at odds-against, which is good enough for me.
Forest's 5-1 win over Swansea last time out broke a six-game streak of BTTS 'No' landing in their fixtures, whereas for Bournemouth it is five from seven in that same period.
The other selection is UNDER 1.5 GOALS at 12/5.
In a match that feels too tricky to pick a winner, what appeals more is backing the most important match in the Championship season to date to be a low-scoring arm wrestle.
Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Both teams to score 'no' at 21/20 (BetVictor)
- 1pt Under 1.5 goals at 12/5 (bet365)
Score prediction: Bournemouth 0-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1300 BST (02/05/22)
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