Liam Kelly previews Brentford's trip to Bournemouth, a possible prelude to a Sky Bet Championship play-off match-up next month.
Football betting tips: Bournemouth v Brentford
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 17/20 (Unibet)
Promotion-chasers Bournemouth and Brentford are separated by just two points as we enter the closing stages of the Sky Bet Championship season.
However, the pair surely come into this game in different mindsets.
Bournemouth are the form team of the league, while Brentford have been rather underwhelming lately, drawing five of their last six matches.
Bournemouth look to continue winning run
The Cherries enter the contest as favourites having won their last seven games after a mediocre start to life under Jonathan Woodgate.
They look assured of a place in the play-offs as a result, leaning on an explosive attacking unit during their incredible run, scoring 21 times in the seven fixtures.
Although the quality Bournemouth possess up top is a step above this level, they have outperformed their underlying numbers significantly during that period, creating 10.95 expected goals for (xGF).
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Their displays still warrant praise given how solid Woodgate's side have been at the back, allowing just 5.0 expected goals against (xGA).
All of which leads to the belief that Bournemouth will regress to the mean, and will be involved in lower-scoring matches if they continue in the same vein.
Brentford's defence remains outstanding
Brentford's defensive numbers on the season are incredible, averaging 0.92 xGA per game in the Championship. So, coupled with the struggles the Bees are having going forward, UNDER 2.5 GOALS makes serious appeal in this match-up.
In their last six games, five of Brentford's eight goals came in one match. Thanks to their excellent backline, they've managed to grind out a number of fairly uneventful draws, but things need to improve if Brentford wish to play in the Premier League next season.
It's clear which of these teams is in better form as we head into the play-offs, but 'momentum' can shift quickly in such a competitive league.
I think both sides will cancel each other out, leading to a close-knit game. Allowing for some attacking magic from the likes of Arnaut Danjuma, Dominic Solanke and Ivan Toney, under 2.5 goals looks the bet.
Bournemouth v Brentford best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 17/20 (UNIBET)
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1350 BST (22/04/21)
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