After landing a 6/1 winner in Dortmund's last game, Tom Carnduff has found two best bets priced at 19/4 and 50/1 for their game against Sevilla.
Football betting tips: Borussia Dortmund v Sevilla
0.5pts e.w. Diego Carlos to score first at 50/1 (Sky Bet) (e.w. terms 1/3 odds 1-98 places)
1pt Sevilla to qualify at 19/4 (Mansion Bet)
Dortmund's 3-2 victory over Sevilla in the first leg came as a slight surprise. It also put them in a strong position to progress, not only do they hold a lead but they have three away goals in the bank too. Even with the circumstances and recent defeats, the LaLiga side still stand a chance of progressing.
They are the outsiders here but Dortmund's 11/10 price on victory in 90 minutes is just too short, particularly when we factor in their current injury issues. Raphael Guerreiro and Jadon Sancho, two regulars in the starting line-up, are expected to be missing while Gio Reyna and Manuel Akanji are also likely to be out. All four were in the squad for the first leg with Reyna being the only one on the bench.
Saturday's 4-2 defeat at Bayern highlighted how Dortmund are still some distance off getting back to the top of the Bundesliga table, even if they took a 2-0 lead early on. They were the only two key chances throughout the game and that is also demonstrated in the expected goals scoreline, which Bayern won 3.00 - 0.62.
Can Sevilla progress to the next round of the Champions League?
Being the outsiders on the night also means that SEVILLA ARE OUTSIDERS TO QUALIFY and the away goals situation isn't ideal. They need to match the three scored by Dortmund or win by two goals. Even with the threat of Erling Haaland at one end, Sevilla are capable of doing enough at the other to win.
Haaland also went off injured in the defeat to Bayern. He should be fit enough to play here and he is Dortmund's main hope of success. Picture it as water leaking out of the tank and Haaland is the tape that Dortmund slap on to cover the crack.
Dortmund's recent form is boosted by the fact they largely faced sides they should be beating. Recent home wins have all been against teams in the bottom-half of the table while Sevilla have faced Barcelona twice in a matter of days, changes were also made to the side that lost to Elche in preparation for this fixture.
Prior to the first defeat to Barcelona, Sevilla had won nine of their previous ten games in 90 minutes, with the loss to Dortmund being the only time they fell short. They bounced back from the defeat in the Champions League with a comfortable 2-0 victory over Osasuna and they can do the same here.
This is a Dortmund side who are in serious danger of failing to qualify for the Champions League next season. Eintracht Frankfurt are holding them out of fourth and Leverkusen are above them and looking to regain the spot - their poor form has helped both Frankfurt and Dortmund in their top-four quests.
Perhaps the preference for Sevilla comes from how sceptical I am about Dortmund. They failed to convince under Lucien Favre and the doubts remain with Edin Terzic at the helm. Results have improved, although they couldn't get much worse, but defeats have come against other top teams (Bayern, Leverkusen and Monchengladbach).
Is this a big game? Most certainly. Are Borussia Dortmund a big game team? Not exactly. The fact that the last trophy came in 2017 may point to Bayern's dominance but it also highlights how they've struggled for success. It's also the same year where they last made the quarter-finals of this competition.
It's a best price of 19/4 that Sevilla progress to the next round of the Champions League, with 4/1 and 9/2 across the board. Even with the 11/5 on an away win looking decent, I'm willing to take the higher odds on the LaLiga outfit doing enough to go through.
Value in the goalscorer market
Dortmund have faced a few struggles this season, and one of those is defending set-piece situations. Only Hertha Berlin (12) and relegation certainties Schalke (16) have conceded more from free-kicks and corners in the Bundesliga than Dortmund (10).
While Sevilla aren't prolific scorers from set-pieces in LaLiga, it is an area where they can target as they need goals in this game. This is where DIEGO CARLOS can star and I'm willing to have a small stakes each-way play on the Sevilla defender scoring the first goal of the game.
He's 50/1 to be first goalscorer with Sky Bet while Betfair and Paddy Power have 55/1 available. We're taking Sky Bet's slightly shorter odds because of the better each-way terms. While five is still generous, a late goal in a high-scoring game would mean it's a losing selection and it's preferable to take the 98 places.
Carlos netted his first goal of the season in the win over Osasuna but it's a surprise to see that there isn't more on his tally. He had two shots in the first leg and that is the fifth time in the Champions League this season where he has had two or more shots in a game.
Both of those first leg shots were on target too. His LaLiga expected goals figure stands at 2.27 yet he's only scored once while his Champions League figure is 1.34 - no goal has come in Europe yet for the defender.
Carlos has been priced up based on his goalscoring record rather than performances and the statistics highlight how he should have had a few more goals this season.
The Sevilla man can score in a game that could upset the odds.
Watching Dortmund go 2-0 up against Bayern, the feeling remained that they will lose the game. I'm not comfortable enough with the hosts being as short as they are for victory and the value comes in taking the visitors to overturn the current deficit.
Borussia Dortmund v Sevilla best bets and score prediction
- 0.5pts e.w. Diego Carlos to score first at 50/1 (Sky Bet) (e.w. terms 1/3 odds 1-98 places)
- 1pt Sevilla to qualify at 19/4 (Mansion Bet)
Score prediction: Borussia Dortmund 1-3 Sevilla (Sky Bet odds: 25/1)
Odds correct at 1140 GMT (08/03/21)
Opta facts
- Borussia Dortmund’s only previous home match against Sevilla was in the 2010-11 UEFA Europa League group stage, losing 1-0.
- Sevilla have won their previous two away games in the UEFA Champions League – excluding qualifiers, the last time they won three consecutive away games in European competition was in the UEFA Cup in 2006-07; a season in which they won the competition.
- Should Borussia Dortmund avoid defeat they will qualify for the UEFA Champions League quarter-final for the first time since 2016-17 under Thomas Tuchel. They have lost the second legs of each of their last two last 16 ties, a 1-0 defeat to Spurs in 2018-19 and 2-0 loss to PSG in 2019-20.
- Dortmund manager Edin Terzic is looking to become the fourth German manager to win his first two UEFA Champions League games, after Josef Heynckes, Klaus Toppmöller and Hans-Dieter Flick. All three managers reached the final in the seasons they won their first two games, with Heynckes (1998, Real Madrid) and Flick (2020, Bayern Munich) winning the competition.
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