Monday night sees Chelsea welcome West Ham to Stamford Bridge and Tom Carnduff is gambling in a change of personnel up front.
Recommended bets
2pts Gonzalo Higuain to have 3+ shots on target at 10/3
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Chelsea v West Ham (Stamford Bridge, 2000 BST, Sky Sports Main Event)
Chelsea have been handed a huge opportunity to move back into the Premier League's top-four after Arsenal were defeated at Everton on Sunday.
Maurizio Sarri has come under criticism at various points this season but his Blues side have a fantastic opportunity to move a step closer to returning to Champions League football, which ultimately should have been the number one objective as opposed to a serious title run.
Their form at Stamford Bridge has been excellent this season and that has more than played its part in their current position. Chelsea have lost just once in front of their own supporters, winning ten of their 16 games at home.
Against a West Ham side who have won just four of 15 away, with five defeats in their last six away, it should be a fairly comfortable evening for the hosts.
It's little surprise to see Chelsea at a general price of 3/10 for victory here, with odds of 5/2 available on the double chance in West Ham's favour highlighting how the Hammers aren't fancied for success in front of the Sky Sports cameras.
The Blues have been fairly comfortable in victory too. They've scored two goals in each of their ten home Premier League victories this season, and the stats highlight how January signing Gonzalo Higuain hasn't been afraid to try and find the net when opportunity presents itself.
In a game where one side is so heavily fancied, the value may be in exploring the stats market for the Chelsea striker.
Betting guide
Score prediction: Chelsea 3-0 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
It should be another home victory for Chelsea and one where the visitors will provide little trouble. Despite an upturn in results during December, the Hammers have been poor away from home and despite a solid showing in a 1-0 defeat away at high-flying Manchester City, they've lost by at least two goals against Cardiff, Wolves, Bournemouth and Burnley.
Best bet: Gonzalo Higuain to have 3+ shots on target at 10/3
A high tally but one that is worth taking in a game such as this. Chelsea's forward line should enjoy plenty of success against a shaky West Ham defence and that will mean shots on goal for Higuain. The striker has had 31 shots in his last seven games for the Blues, with 15 of those coming in their three home games. Sky Bet offer 10/3 on Higuain hitting three or more shots on target in this game, which is value that is well worth taking.
He has had issues during his time at Stamford Bridge, with Sarri comparing him with Luis Suarez during his first season in the Premier League - saying that he needs to adjust to the physicality. The Chelsea boss recently said: "He has to improve physically and mentally, but I think also he will be able to be very useful for us in the last part of the season."
Higuain is a player who does thrive on playing those typically towards the bottom. However, coming up against a team with an away record like West Ham's might be the perfect opportunity for the Italian to try and find some confidence ahead of the crucial run-in.
While he was an unused sub in the defeat to Brighton, there's every chance that Higuain could return to the starting line-up here with an important Europa League tie against Slavia Prague on Thursday too.
Sporting Life Price Boost: Gonzalo Higuain to score and Chelsea to win at 11/8 (available EXCLUSIVELY through this link)
Opta facts
- Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 12 home league meetings with West Ham (W8 D4) since a 2-3 loss in September 2002.
- West Ham are unbeaten in their last three Premier League games against Chelsea (W1 D2), last having a longer unbeaten run against the Blues between March 1998 and March 2000 (5 games).
- Chelsea have lost three home Premier League London derbies over the past four seasons (W9 D4 L3) – as many as they had in the previous 11 campaigns in the competition (W34 D13 L3).
- After a run of eight London derby matches without a win (D5 L3), West Ham have won four of their last five in the Premier League (D1).
- Chelsea haven’t lost a home Premier League game on a Monday since December 1994 (2-3 vs Man Utd), winning 11 and drawing three since.
- No side has conceded fewer home goals than Chelsea in the Premier League this season (10). Only Arsenal and Manchester United (2) have scored more than once as a visiting side at Stamford Bridge this season.
- West Ham are unbeaten in their last 17 Premier League games in which they’ve scored this season (W12 D5) since a 1-3 loss at Arsenal in August. It’s the longest current such run in the division.
- West Ham striker Javier Hernandez has scored in each of his last four Premier League away games against Chelsea. Only four players have scored in five consecutive away Premier League games against an opponent – Dion Dublin vs Tottenham, Alan Shearer vs Leeds, Ruud van Nistelrooy vs Newcastle and Robert Pires vs Tottenham.
- Chelsea’s Olivier Giroud has had a hand in nine goals in 11 Premier League games against West Ham (6 goals, 3 assists) – against no side has he been involved in more.
- Chelsea’s Eden Hazard has been directly involved in nine goals in his last nine Premier League games at Stamford Bridge (4 goals, 5 assists).
Odds correct at 1010 BST (08/04/19)
