Blackpool have a three-goal lead over Oxford United heading into their League One play-off semi-final second leg at Bloomfield Road. Joe Rindl has the preview and best bets.
Football betting tips: Blackpool v Oxford
2pts BTTS at 10/11 (Sporting Index)
1pt Oxford to win and BTTS at 11/2 (BetVictor, Bet365)
We pitted the first leg of this play-off semi-final as one of League One’s best attacking teams (Oxford) meeting one of it’s best defensive sides (Blackpool).
But on Tuesday night the unmovable object stopped the unstoppable force and then went and moved forward as Blackpool cruised past Oxford United 3-0.
Confused? Well that’s the play-offs. Oxford’s record of 24 goals and six wins from their final seven league fixtures counts for nothing at this stage of the season. At home last time out they managed just one shot on target.
I guess it shouldn’t really come as a surprise. Defence usually beats out attack when the going gets tough.
And Blackpool have one of the toughest defences in the EFL. The Tangerines finished the season strongly, winning their last four matches without conceding as they ended in third place in League One.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Neil Critchley’s side are the only team in the play-offs according to Infogol’s ratings who are allowing less than 1.0 xGA per game. Plus, they also took four points off the Us in the league, keeping clean sheets in both games.
It’s going forward where we thought there’d be problems. Blackpool had averaged just 1.19 xGF per game over the course of the regular season - but a clinical tap-in from Oliver Turton and a Ellis Simms double mean they go into the second leg with a three-goal cushion.
Should I back Blackpool?
Oxford reached last season's League One play-off final but their attempts to reach a second successive Wembley showpiece are all but over at the halfway stage.
In front of their own fans they stuttered and crumbled under pressure. The play-offs are famous for unlikely comebacks - see Yeovil beating Nottingham Forest 4-5 on aggregate in 2007 - but even our most optimistic Sporting Life tipsters can’t see a dramatic turnaround.
Steer clear of the 33/1 shout of Oxford qualifying and instead take a peek at BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE.
Surely Oxford are going to go all out rather than wondering what might have been? Karl Robinson's forwards had an off day in the opening leg, but if they find their mojo I doubt even Blackpool's back line could keep them quiet for another 90.
And if there are gaps at the back expect the hosts to capitalise on the break and nick a goal of their own.
At 10/11 I’d say it’s worth putting two points on this punt.
I’d also place a bet on OXFORD TO WIN AND BTTS at a monstrous 11/2 with BetVictor and Bet365.
14 of Oxford's 22 League One wins this season have seen both teams hit the net and remember, a 2-1 loss suits Blackpool just fine.
Blackpool v Oxford best bets and score prediction
- 2pts BTTS at 10/11 (Sporting Index)
- 1pt Oxford to win and BTTS at 11/2 (BetVictor, Bet365)
Score prediction: Blackpool 1-2 Oxford (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1300 BST (19/05/21)
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