Birmingham welcome promotion-chasing Swansea to St Andrew's on Friday evening and Liam Kelly has previewed the fixture, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Birmingham v Swansea
- 1pt Swansea to keep a clean sheet at 13/8 (General)
After one win and one defeat in his opening matches as new Birmingham manager, Lee Bowyer has been offered some time to work with his squad during the international break, time that was much-needed given the precarious position the Blues find themselves in.
Birmingham sit just three points above the final relegation spot entering the Good Friday schedule, but Rotherham have four (!) games in hand on Bowyer’s side.
A problem area which Bowyer will be desperate to solve is Birmingham’s lack of goal threat and general troubles with chance creation.
They scored just 26 goals in 36 league games under previous manager Aitor Karanka, averaging a lacklustre 0.93 expected goals for (xGF) per game.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
- xG process is the rate at which a teams creates and concedes chances
Although there was a little improvement on that front in Bowyer’s opening two games, scoring two goals against play-off contenders Reading, before registering 1.17 xGF at Watford despite a 3-0 loss, Birmingham face a Swansea side known for their defensive solidity, conceding only 28 goals this season.
Steve Cooper’s men have averaged 1.02 expected goals against (xGA) per game over the course of their Championship campaign, ranking as the fifth best team in the league in that metric.
However, Swansea’s struggles up top (averaging 1.17 xGF per game) have resulted in a middling underlying process, which is finally catching up with them in recent weeks, losing their last two league fixtures at a vital point of the season.
Under 2.5 Goals may prove a popular pick considering the tendencies of these two teams here but looks way too short.
As a result of the Swans’ numbers, as well as Birmingham’s inability to create scoring chances, backing SWANSEA TO KEEP A CLEAN SHEET at 13/8 looks a healthier play.
Birmingham v Swansea best bets and score prediction
Swansea to keep a clean sheet at 13/8 (General)
Score prediction: Birmingham 0-2 Swansea (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1300 BST (31/03/21)
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