Jake Pearson has a preview and a best bet as Birmingham host Derby in the Sky Bet Championship's Friday night fixture, with both sides looking to build on encouraging starts to the season.
Football betting tips: Sky Bet Championship
1pt Birmingham to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 7/5 (Boylesport)
Lee Bowyer’s first full season as Birmingham City manager has started reasonably well, the Blues sitting in eighth position in the Sky Bet Championship having lost just one of their opening five matches.
Two wins and two draws from the other four fixtures is hardly title challenging form, but it does highlight just how far Birmingham have come since Bowyer was drafted in to stave off relegation last season.
A top six finish is likely to be Bowyer’s target, and games such as this are must-wins if his team are serious about making the play-offs this term.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Birmingham 17/20 | Draw 23/10 | Derby 7/2
All things considered, Wayne Rooney’s Derby have not made a terrible start to the season, losing just once in their opening five league matches, and that defeat came in a game the Rams were leading up until the 91st minute.
There have certainly been signs of encouragement for Derby so far this season, though it has to be said, Rooney’s men have only faced one side from the top half of last season’s Championship, having also already played two of the newly-promoted teams.
This will be a real test for the Rams, particularly with the physicality Birmingham will no doubt bring to the match-up.
Birmingham make no bones about their style of play. So far this season they have recorded the second lowest average possession in the Championship, but only five teams have a higher shot-per-game average then Bowyer’s men.
In fact, only three teams have created more chances than the Blues according to expected goals (xG) this season, while only four teams have conceded fewer opportunities.
Bowyer is creating an efficient machine, and though their record at St Andrew’s hasn’t been the best over the past year, this looks a good opportunity for them to begin to rectify that.
Birmingham will likely prove too strong for Derby, so it is certainly worth getting the Blues onside, but the vast majority of games involving these two this season have been low scoring affairs, and this could be another.
Only one of Birmingham’s five matches this season has seen over 2.5 goals, and the same applies to Derby.
None of Derby’s matches have seen more than three goals this term, while only one of Birmingham’s (the same one that went over 2.5) has.
Birmingham are odds-on to claim all three points against Derby, but given the unlikeliness of this becoming a goal-fest, backing BIRMINGHAM TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS makes plenty of appeal at a price of 7/5.
Birmingham v Derby best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Birmingham to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 7/5 (Boylesport)
Score prediction: Birmingham 1-0 Derby (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 2035 BST (07/09/21)
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