Belgium travel to Russia for their opening fixture of Euro 2020, and Jake Pearson thinks it will be smooth sailing for Roberto Martinez' side.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Belgium v Russia
2pts Belgium to win at 3/4 (Unibet)
1pt Belgium to win and Under 2.5 Goals at 11/4 (General)
A 1-1 draw against Greece was hardly ideal preparation for Belgium as they look to win their first major tournament, but they got things back on track with a well-deserved 1-0 victory over Croatia in their final warm-up game before Euro 2020 gets under way, Romelu Lukaku’s first-half strike giving Roberto Martinez’ side the win.
The major worry for Belgium coming into this tournament is certainly their defence, the inclusion of veteran centre-half Thomas Vermaelen, who currently plies his trade in Japan for Vissel Kobe, highlighting the lack of numbers they have at the back.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: ITV 1
Venue: Gazprom Arena - Saint Petersburg, Russia
Home 7/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 17/4
However, despite Croatia having more of the ball than Belgium on Sunday, they struggled to create many chances, with Thibaut Courtois rarely tested throughout the 90 minutes, and no team actually conceded fewer than the three goals Belgium did throughout the entire qualification process.
Martinez’ side also conceded just twice in the group stage at the 2018 World Cup, and both those came in one game, so, for all the talk that this is an attack heavy team, which it undoubtedly is, the Red Devils are more than capable of keeping it tight at the back.
The fact that Roberto Martinez has named just seven defenders in his entire squad demonstrates Belgium’s attacking intent, but balance is key to going the distance in a major tournament, and it is difficult to see them approaching this opening game in a completely gung-ho fashion.
Russia lack cutting edge
Russia arrive at the Euros in good form themselves, following a 1-1 draw against Poland with a 1-0 victory over Bulgaria in their pre-tournament warm-up matches, and Stanislav Cherchesov’s side will fancy their chances of getting out of Group B, with Denmark and Finland the other two members.
Russia played well against Bulgaria, dominating the ball and playing lots of nice, neat football in and around the opposition final third.
The lack of a real goal scorer was evident however, as, for all that Artem Dzyuba is a highly-accomplished footballer, his game is very much about bringing others into play, and without a secondary striker to play off him, a lot of the good work that Russia do fizzles out quite quickly.
Aleksandr Golovin is a very good player and will be a real threat, but again, without a striker stretching the defence with runs in behind, he often finds himself without a pass to play, other than bouncing the ball back and forth from Dzyuba’s feet.
Russia will be a threat, and as we saw in the 2018 World Cup, they are likely to upset the applecart on at least one occasion, but it is difficult to see them posing a big danger to Belgium in their opening fixture.
They do have the advantage of playing this match in St Petersburg, but Belgium have hardly been poor away from home, in fact, Martinez’ side have lost just once on their travels since late 2018.
Get Belgians onside
The first thing to say in terms of the betting is that there does seem to be a theme following Belgium, wherein the bookmakers do tend to be underestimating them slightly. This is a side who won all ten of their qualifying matches, scoring 40 and conceding three.
They finished third at the 2018 World Cup, boast a team full of the most talented players on planet earth and are the number one ranked side in the world, yet they are available at 3/4 to win their opening fixture against Russia.
Whichever way you look at it, that is too big, and a confident bet on BELGIUM TO WIN is recommended.
In terms of the amount of goals scored in this game, the line looks to be 2.5, with the odds slightly favouring unders, which is understandable when you consider exactly what is at stake. These opening group matches tend to be cautious affairs, and in fact, in the 28 opening group matches in the last three European Championships, only five have seen more than two goals.
These two did meet in qualifying, and both games did go over 2.5 goals, but this is the first game of a major tournament, and the approach from both teams will surely be different.
If we take the true price of a Belgium win (1.73) and multiply it by the true price of Under 2.5 Goals (1.89), we get odds of 3.3, which makes the 11/4 (3.75) on offer for BELGIUM TO WIN AND UNDER 2.5 GOALS a decent amount of value, so a second bet is recommended at smaller stakes.
Belgium v Russia best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Belgium to win at 3/4 (Unibet)
- 1pt Belgium to win and Under 2.5 Goals at 11/4 (General)
Score prediction: Belgium 2-0 Russia (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct 1100 BST (08/06/21)
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