Saturday's early kick-off sees automatic promotion hopefuls Brentford travel to Derby. Tom Carnduff picks out his two best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Brentford (-1 handicap) to beat Derby at 5/2
1pt Said Benrahma to score anytime at 11/4
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Derby v Brentford (Sky Sports Football, 12:30 BST)
Brentford don't look like slowing down in their pursuit of a top-two finish, and after Derby's showing against West Brom, they can expect another three points here.
The Asian Handicap has Brentford at -0.5 for victory here but we can expect a more convincing result based on recent results. Derby were fancied by many to make a charge into the play-offs, but their performance against the Baggies highlighted that they look like a team far away from promotion.
Wayne Rooney played in a more advanced position last time out but he failed to inspire a win. It's no coincidence that when Rooney struggles to play, so do his team mates.
Louie Sibley was shown a red card late on and, at the time of writing, we're still unclear about it being overturned. Derby have said they will appeal and the decision did look a harsh one watching it back.
However, should that not be overturned, the Rams will be without Sibley and forward Martyn Waghorn from an already-thin squad. Brentford will have no fears about going to Pride Park and getting the three points.
Brentford have already won six games in a row and will have their sights set on breaking the club record of nine set back in 1932; that will surely be enough to secure automatic promotion to the Premier League.
The main concern for the visitors here will be what happens if that winning run stops. While their response to dropping points has generally been good, there have been multiple occasions where there have been a run of fixtures without victory.
If that happens, they'll present Leeds and West Brom will the golden opportunity to break clear. Of course, given the current points gap, there's a possibility that Brentford win every single game and still miss out on the top-two.
Among the goalscorers for Brentford could be Said Benrahma. The winger is reportedly a transfer target for Chelsea and he's enjoyed a wonderful season in the Championship. In 39 appearances, there have been 14 goals and nine assists.
He hit a hat-trick in their recent win over Wigan and will fancy his chances of another goal here. Betfair's 11/4 price on an anytime goal is well worth taking given the contest.
Score prediction: Derby 0-3 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Best bet: Brentford (-1 handicap) to beat Derby at 5/2
Best bet: Said Benrahma to score anytime at 11/4
Opta facts
- Derby have won two of the last four league games against Brentford (D1 L1) with both victories coming on home soil in February and September 2018.
- Brentford’s last away victory in any competition against Derby came back in February 1993 in an Anglo-Italian Semi-Final encounter, losing five of their last seven visits (D2).
- Derby have only lost one of their last 19 home league games (W11 D7), with a current unbeaten run of nine games at home (W6 D3).
- Brentford have won their last six games in the Championship by an aggregate score of 16-1, while they’ve won both of their away games since the restart without conceding (2-0 v Fulham and 3-0 v Reading).
- Brentford striker Ollie Watkins has netted three times against Derby in five previous league appearances, including a brace in the reverse fixture back in August – however, he is yet to net at Pride Park.
Odds correct at 1100 BST (09/07/20)
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