Can Bayern Munich secure a remarkable comeback with victory over Manchester City? Probably not, but value remains in their second leg.
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Over 4.5 Bayern Munich corners at 10/11 (General)
1pt Benjamin Pavard to score anytime at 14/1 (bet365)
Having backed Bayern Munich for Champions League glory, I watched their first leg defeat to Manchester City akin to David Brent emerging from his desk in an emu costume.
That's that ruined, with Erling Haaland's third goal all-but-securing City's progression to the semi-finals of the competition at Bayern's expense.
They can't hold any complaints given the way the game played out. A seemingly impossible task that now looks even tougher after they dropped points against Hoffenheim at the weekend.
Bayern Munich v Man City (agg: 0-3)
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV Channel: BT Sport 1
Home 13/8 | Draw 3/1 | Away 13/10
The desired upturn from Thomas Tuchel's appointment hasn't surfaced, with the club still heavily under pressure in the Bundesliga title race and now facing the prospect of an early European exit.
This truly is the free hit game now though. So far behind in the tie that they may as well just go for it without worrying about the aggregate score - they've created a situation where they isn't an alternative.
It's easier said than done against an opponent of this quality, but the 10/11 general price on OVER 4.5 BAYERN MUNICH CORNERS provides appeal given how we expect the game to play out.
While it's not clear whether the hosts will actually be on the front foot or not, we likely require some early corners to give this one a real chance just in case City extend their advantage.
However, they've achieved this in all five games under Tuchel, with a huge number of 13 in that draw last time out. That run, of course, includes the away leg of this in which they took five.
Game state is a massive factor when it comes to corner betting, and given that the emphasis isn't on City to attack, it feels safer siding with the hosts rather than taking the overall count to hit double figures.
The bigger priced play in this game comes in the 14/1 available on BENJAMIN PAVARD TO SCORE ANYTIME, with the full-back striking at the weekend.
He also had another ruled out late on for offside, but he's been a player consistently posting shots following Tuchel's arrival.
Pavard had two in that last game - one of which was a long range effort that sailed over the bar - while his actual goal came from connecting with a driven shot into the box after a corner.
That took his total to seven across all competitions, with two coming in the Champions League. A point of interest is that he's demonstrated an ability to strike whether at right-back or in the centre of defence.
Pavard also saw Bayern's 'best' chance of the first leg fall his way, according to the underlying numbers, with his second-half header coming in at 0.38 xG - 46% of their total figure.
It's an uphill task for the Bavarian giants to win this game, let alone the tie, meaning the best bets can be found in backing BAYERN CORNERS alongside PAVARD's goalscorer price.
Bayern Munich v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Over 4.5 Bayern Munich corners at 10/11 (General)
- 1pt Benjamin Pavard to score anytime at 14/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Bayern Munich 2-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1430 BST (17/04/23)
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