After landing a 6/1 winner in his last Bayern preview, Tom Carnduff has three best bets at 19/5, 16/1 and 66/1 for their game against Lazio.
Football betting tips: Bayern Munich v Lazio
1pt Over 2.5 first-half goals at 19/5 (Betfair)
1pt e.w. Leon Goretzka to score first at 16/1 (Sky Bet) (e.w. terms 1/3 odds 1-99 places)
0.5pts Leon Goretzka to score two or more goals at 66/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)
Bayern Munich hold a commanding 4-1 lead in their tie with Lazio, a position that sees them as 1/750 favourites to progress to the next round.
The Serie A side need to pull off one of the Champions League's greatest ever comebacks if they are to reach the quarter-finals and that just won't happen.
Bayern are Germany's dominant force. They top the Bundesliga table once again as they aim for another title and find themselves in a strong position to retain their European crown.
With four losses in their last six, Lazio should expect the aggregate score to look uncomfortable at the full-time whistle.
The good news for the neutral is that while simultaneously Chelsea and Atletico Madrid will be playing a game akin to chess in west London, this should provide goals with both teams seeing plenty in their recent games.
It also presents value in the goalscorer market - Bayern will go strong despite their current position.
Target goals in the first-half
Goals are fancied in this game with over 2.5 a very short 2/5 across the board. It's hardly a surprise given the attacking strength of the hosts and the fact that they have seen over 3.5 goals in each of their last four outings.
However, with the short prices in the total goals market providing little appeal, it's worth taking OVER 2.5 FIRST-HALF GOALS at the 19/5 on offer with Betfair.
Other bookmakers such as Sky Bet offer 7/2 and that still represents value. It's been a theme of both of these teams recently.
Bayern regularly see goals in the first-half of their games. Two of their last six have seen three or more first-half goals while the four games that fell short all saw the net hit twice. For Lazio, they had three in the win over Crotone while there were two in their game against Juventus before that.
While there was only one against Bologna, Lazio did miss a penalty so that was a first-half that could have also had two.
There is still an odds-against price available on over 1.5 first-half goals here, but with near enough 4/1 on three or more, it's worth being brave.
Sticking with Goretzka
In Der Klassiker, I put LEON GORETZKA up to score first as an each-way selection, and while he didn't, he still delivered a 6/1 winner by scoring anytime.
The midfielder netted the first goal of the contest in Bayern's recent win over Werder Bremen and I'm willing to stick with him a 16/1 is on offer with Sky Bet.
Taking the 16/1 each-way also gives an anytime goalscorer price of greater than 5/1 due to Sky Bet's 99 place terms.
He's scored in both of his last two outings and also registered four assists across his last three. He's always been a goalscorer who is slightly overpriced and that remains the case here.
Goretzka also has a habit of scoring early.
His strike against Dortmund was the only goal in his last seven where he didn't net one of the games opening two goals.
This habit means I'm also willing to have a small-stakes play on GORETZKA SCORING TWO OR MORE at 66/1.
A high-scoring game, particularly with the majority of those goals going to the hosts, gives this a chance of landing - he has had two or more shots in six of his last seven Bundesliga outings.
There is little appeal in the outright market thanks to Bayern's very short price, so ridiculously low that no value can be found in any combination.
If we were looking for an outright price, I'd have little issue in taking Bayern to win with over 4.5 goals in the game at 5/2 or a Bayern win with both teams scoring at 11/8.
But the best prices can be found in backing GORETZKA and FIRST-HALF GOALS.
Bayern Munich v Lazio best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Over 2.5 first-half goals at 19/5 (Betfair)
- 1pt e.w. Leon Goretzka to score first at 16/1 (Sky Bet) (e.w. terms 1/3 odds 1-99 places)
- 0.5pts Leon Goretzka to score two or more goals at 66/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)
Score prediction: Bayern Munich 4-1 Lazio (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Odds correct at 1050 GMT (15/03/21)
Opta facts
- Bayern Munich are hosting Lazio for the first time in European competition. None of the last 21 sides facing Bayern away from home for the first time in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League have won (W20 D1) since Bordeaux won 2-0 back in November 2009.
- Italian sides have lost each of their last four away UEFA Champions League visits to Bayern Munich, though this is the first time an Italian side has faced Bayern away from home since Juventus lost 4-2 in March 2016 in the last 16.
- Since Hansi Flick took charge of the club, Bayern Munich have won their six home games in the UEFA Champions League by an aggregate score of 18-3. However, only one of the previous six have come in the knockout stages of the competition – beating Chelsea 4-1 in the second leg of last season’s Round of 16.
- No side in the history of the European Cup/UEFA Champions League has ever progressed from a knockout tie after losing the first leg by three or more goals at home – prior to this season, that has occurred on 88 occasions with all 88 sides being eliminated.
- Each of Lazio’s last 13 matches in the UEFA Champions League has seen both sides score – the longest run in the history of the European Cup/Champions League.
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