Bayern Munich will be confident of continuing their good form as they welcome Dynamo Kyiv and Tom Carnduff has found value in the goalscorer market.
Bayern's bid for Champions League glory started in perfect fashion with a 3-0 win at Barcelona. With Dynamo Kyiv the visitors on Wednesday night, anything less than a repeat scoreline will be viewed as slightly disappointing.
Dynamo top the Ukrainian league but Bayern will pose a much tougher test and the 1/16 price on a home win - plus the even money price on the Bundesliga outfit scoring four or more - shows how comfortable this result should be in the end.
Bayern are really hitting form under Julian Nagelsmann and it's clear they are starting to really buy into the way he wants to play. They are on an eight-game winning streak - seven of those have been by a two-goal or greater margin.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: BT Sport Extra
The tip in Bayern's game on Friday night - and the one I put up as my NAP in our best bets video - was JOSHUA KIMMICH TO SCORE FIRST as an each-way selection at 25/1. He got the second goal returning a winner at greater than 8/1. With 22s available here, I'm more than happy to back it again.
The reasons for the previous tip was due to Kimmich's increased attacking presence under Nagelsmann. His tally for the Bundesliga campaign now stands at three while he has also contributed three assists. He's not the holding midfielder we have seen in previous years.
The assists tally isn't a surprise because his presence at set-pieces, alongside open play, has led to a regular high count but the goals are an eye-catching feature of his early season showing.
In 2020/21, Kimmich averaged 0.09 xG per 95 minutes in the Bundesliga. This season, that figure has jumped up to 0.24 xG/95.
Remarkably, he's only 0.8 xG away from beating last season's total tally - that's despite only playing six games so far compared to 27.
Thomas Muller is averaging 0.26 xG/95 - he's a much shorter 6/1 for the first goal. Jamal Musiala, who is unlikely to start, still finds himself at a 13/2 to score first - his xG/95 is a lower 0.19. Statistics such as these further highlight why Kimmich is Bayern's value play at the moment.
It's a surprise to see a price as big as 22/1 available on Kimmich being the first goalscorer given his current form - an each-way bet that provides odds of above 7/1 if one comes anytime. In a comfortable Bayern win, it's worth backing the midfielder to strike.
Bayern Munich v Dynamo Kyiv best bets and score prediction
- 1pt e.w. Joshua Kimmich to score first at 22/1 (Bet365) (1/3 1-99)
Score prediction: Bayern Munich 3-0 Dynamo Kyiv (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 0945 BST (28/09/21)
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