Bayern Munich host Benfica in the Champions League on Tuesday night and Tom Carnduff is backing a goalscorer at a big price.
Bayern Munich have been in fine form in the Bundesliga. Even with a hugely surprising 5-0 hammering by Borussia Mönchengladbach in the DFB-Pokal last week, they bounced back by scoring five themselves against Union Berlin.
They've scored at least four in four of their last five competitive fixtures and that includes a comfortable 4-0 win in Portugal when these two met a couple of weeks ago. Given current form, we could expect the same here.
Benfica have managed just one win in their last four but still find themselves third in the Portuguese standings. As their last Champions League encounter showed though, Bayern are a completely different test and facing them at the Allianz Arena only makes things worse.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Tuesday
TV channel: BT Sport ESPN
Bayern players are incredible short prices to strike. Seven hold odds of 2/1 or shorter to net anytime in this game while Robert Lewandowski's hat-trick price standing at 9/2 shows how one-sided this is expected to be.
Leroy Sane - a favourite during the opening exchanges of the season in the Bundesliga column - is now 6/4 with prices of 3/1 seemingly long gone. He's starting to hit good form in front of goal.
However, it's still a surprise to see how much the odds underestimate JOSHUA KIMMICH in front of goal. For that reason, we're taking the 25/1 each-way on KIMMICH TO SCORE FIRST in this one.
He's already delivered a winner at the same anytime odds earlier in the season and his underlying numbers highlight his impact. The midfielder is posting over one shot per game with an xG per 95 minutes figure of 0.16.
Kimmich has had four efforts in the Champions League with three of those on target. One came against Benfica with two in their only home European game so far - that being a 5-0 win over Dynamo Kyiv.
Bayern's -1 price sitting at 1/2 shows their expected dominance of this one. That makes KIMMICH a solid value play for the home side.
Bayern Munich v Benfica best bets and score prediction
- 1pt e.w. Joshua Kimmich to score first at 25/1 (bet365 1/3 1-98)
Score prediction: Bayern Munich 3-0 Benfica (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1140 GMT (01/11/21)
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